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We’ve got a quarterback showdown on Sunday night as Tom Brady sets off to face Patrick Mahomes in Tampa. The Bucs and Chiefs each enter the matchup at 2-1 following close losses last weekend. Kansas City played sloppily in a 20-17 defeat at the hands of the Colts. KC missed a field goal, an extra point, and had a pair of turnovers.
The Bucs fell to the Packers, 14-12, missing a game-tying two-point conversion in the final minute of action. Tampa Bay lost a pair of fumbles and struggled to move the ball all afternoon. Brady was only able to lead his team to 285 yards of offense, 89 of which came on the game’s final drive.
Each passer will look to overcome those poor showings from Sunday and get back in the win column this weekend in primetime.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Date and Time: Sunday, October 2, 2022, at 8:20 PM EST
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
TV Coverage: NBC
BetMaker previews the upcoming matchup and gives its prediction for Sunday night.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Bucs NFL Picks
Kansas City boasts one of the better offenses in the NFL, averaging just under 30 points per game through three outings. Patrick Mahomes is throwing for 285 yds/gm though the run game could use a bit of improvement. Last week was the worst performance of the season for the unit, but it was a loss credited to missed opportunities more than production.
KC missed a kick and went just 2 for 4 in the red zone. The Chiefs won the yardage battle but couldn’t turn that production into points. The defense, meanwhile, has been up and down. Kansas City is shutting down the run game (87 yd/gm), but they’ve struggled against the pass (254 yd/gm). They’ve also allowed at least 20 points in each outing this season.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, boasts one of the stoutest defensive units in the league. Through three games against the Packers, Saints, and Cowboys, they’re allowing just nine points a contest. The Bucs have been great against the run, surrendering 79 yards a game. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in an outing this year.
The offense, though, has been surprisingly mediocre. Tom Brady is throwing for 224 yd/gm, but the rushing attack has been non-existent over the last two games. After exploding for 127 yards in the season opener, Leonard Fournette has run for 100 yards on 36 carries (2.8 yd/att) in his last two appearances. If the Bucs can’t keep a balanced attack, it could be a long day for Brady.
NFL Week 4 Betting Odds
Find all updated NFL betting odds at BetRivers sportsbook.
Kansas City Chiefs: -1.5
Tampa Bay Bucs: +1.5
Over/Under: 45 points
The Chiefs enter as road favorites with the line sitting at -1.5 in favor of Kansas City. The Bucs, despite playing at home, will come in as the underdog. The total rests at 45 points.
Kansas City is 1-2 ATS, playing all three games as favorites. They’ve failed to cover in each of the last two outings, which include a three-point win over the Chargers and a loss to the Colts. KC covered easily in a Week 1 win over Arizona. The Chiefs are 1-1 as a road favorite.
Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS, playing all three games as favorites. They covered easily in matchups with the Saints and Cowboys before falling outright to the Packers last week. Tampa is 0-1 ATS at home, with both covers coming on the road.
The over/under is interesting because it’s largely unpredictable. Will we see the same stout defense from the Bucs or will this turn into a shootout between Brady and Mahomes? Tampa and its opponents have yet to total more than 30 points in a game.
Even in last week’s showdown between Brady and Aaron Rodgers ended at just 26 points. Kansas City, meanwhile, has seen totals of 65, 51, and 37.
The last three meetings in the series have fallen UNDER the total with the Bucs covering each as underdogs. Tampa Bay has won two of those three meetings outright, with the latest edition coming in the 2020 Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs
Mecole Hardman, Harrison Butker, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are listed as questionable on the injury report.
Tampa Bay Bucs
Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Breshad Perriman are listed as questionable for the Bucs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Bucs NFL Free Pick
This should be a highly entertaining battle, but we can’t go against Tom Brady at home. Especially coming off of a close loss last week. Look for that Tampa defense to put its clamps on the KC offense as it’s already done to Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers.
We’ll back the Bucs, and with the line sitting at +1.5, will take them on the money line.
The under could be a solid play, too.
The Pick: TAMPA BAY BUCS ML
