NFL Sunday Night Football Picks – Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
September 29, 2022
NFL MVP Odds & Picks
September 29, 2022
We’re on a roll now. After cashing both of our parlays in Week 3, we had our biggest score of the season so far last week and will be in the black for quite some time even if we bust out for the next few weeks.
The SEC Double Digit Favorites Parlay of the Week didn’t pan out as both Ole Miss and Tennessee failed to cover the spread, but our Underdog Moneyline Parlay of the Week cashed in a big way. Kansas State went into Norman and knocked off Oklahoma to beat the Sooners for the third time in the last four seasons, and Buffalo throttled Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti for its first win of the season. That parlay paid off at almost 12.5-1, so you have to pay attention to what’s in store this week.
Underdog Moneyline Parlay of the Week
SMU ML +132 and Wake Forest ML +207
$100 to Win $612.24
You can also call this the Fading Florida Parlay of the Week as we are betting against both FSU and UCF this weekend. The Seminoles are 4-0 and ranked for the first time in four years, but if you’ve watched their games, it hasn’t been pretty. While Jordan Travis has improved as a passer, he is still far from polished, and the offensive line play hasn’t been great despite FSU averaging 5.5 YPC.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest can put up a lot of points. Sam Hartman might be a first-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft, as he runs the RPO to perfection. The Demon Deacons frustrate the hell out of their opponents with their slow mesh offense, and that led to this team putting up 45 points on Clemson last week.
FSU has a good defensive line (that isn’t as good as Clemson’s front four) and worse linebackers, so they could have a real tough time stopping Wake Forest at home on Saturday.
The shine is starting to wear off the Gus Malzahn era at UCF. Malzahn led the Knights to a 9-4 record last season, but this offense has taken a step back with John Rhys Plumlee under center.
While Plumlee is a very dangerous runner, he leaves a lot to be desired as a passer, and opponents have started to gameplan accordingly. It took way too long for UCF’s offense to get going last week against a listless Georgia Tech team, and the Knights will not have as much fan support as usual with this game moved to Sunday.
SMU has one of the best offenses in the AAC. The Mustangs have put up points on every opponent they have faced so far as Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 1,385 yards (8.3 YPA) and 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. Rashee Rice is one of the most dangerous receivers in the nation with 34 receptions for 565 yards and four touchdowns, and he can punish this secondary.
Lone Star State Parlay of the Week
Texas -8 vs. West Virginia and North Texas +3.5 vs. Florida Atlantic
$100 to Win $256.92
Quinn Ewers has been taking snaps with the first-team offense again, and his return would likely be enough to give Texas a double-digit win over West Virginia on Saturday. Ewers was excellent against Alabama before suffering an injury, and the Longhorns have missed having him under center. Bijan Robinson has run well with 414 yards (6.2 YPC) and seven touchdowns through four games, and he will be even more effective if Ewers is back at QB.
North Texas is 2-3 on the season and has played in a lot of blowouts. The Mean Green hammered UTEP and Texas Southern, and they were in turn annihilated by SMU and UNLV.
They are coming off a loss to Memphis last week, but that was a game that the Mean Green could have won if not for two second-half pick-sixes for the Tigers. Florida Atlantic and N’Kosi Perry are a little overrated, as Purdue clearly overlooked them last week before the start of Big Ten play. The Owls are also 2-3, and they shouldn’t be laying three and a hook on the road.
