Detroit Lions Season Win Total Odds, Pick & Prediction

The Detroit Lions have high expectations heading into 2023-24 after closing last year out with a bang and coming up just short of punching a ticket to the second season. After wrapping the season with a 9-8 record that saw them go an NFC-best 12-5 against the closing NFL betting odds, the Lions are aiming to take the next step and contend for an NFC Championship. BetRivers Sportsbook currently has them installed the odds-on +125 favorites to win the NFC North for the first time since the early 90’s as well as -175 chalk to end their playoff drought at six straight years. Every team in the division has seen drastic changes to their win total odds, and the Lions aren’t an exception with the number to beat up three full games from the prior year. Expectations are enormously high, but can Dan Campbell’s troops handle the pressure of living up to expectations and give the poor souls residing in Detroit something to be proud of this season?

Detroit Lions: Protect Those Knee Caps!

The Lions kicked off their 2022-23 campaign by dropping six of their first seven games which included dropping ugly 29-0 and 24-6 decisions to the Patriots and Cowboys respectively. But from that point forward, it was all systems go with Jared Goff shockingly leading the team to triumphs in eight of the final 10 games and close the season out by ending the Packers playoff hopes. OC Ben Johnson helped transform the offense into one of the most prolific in the league with it averaging nearly 27 points per game and ranking second in Expected Points Added (EPA). QB Jared Goff played exceptionally well, finishing sixth in EPA and producing a high rate of games with an output greater than their opponents’ average allowed. If you can believe it, No. 16 was actually rostered on fantasy football teams that won their league title!

While the offense thrived, the defense struggled, ranking 31st in EPA and 32nd in total yards allowed per game (392.4). However, the Lions were able to outscore their opponents and win games due to their ability to consistently win the turnover battle. They finished with the third-lowest EPA lost due to turnovers and closed the year with a +7 turnover differential behind only Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco. Goff’s ability to limit interceptions played a significant role in the team’s success with the veteran only throwing seven to match his career-lows set his first two seasons while with the Rams.

Bet the Detroit Lions Season Wins Total at BetRivers Sportsbook

Detroit Lions Season Wins Total: 9.5

Detroit finally just snapped a four-season stretch of not surpassing its expected win total. It smashed last year’s 6.5-game impost by winning nine games to finish with a winning mark for the first time since 2017. The Lions will face a mix of opponents with winning records from the previous year and teams that struggled. Based on their opponents’ combined win total last year, the Lions will have the 18th-ranked schedule in the league. However, when considering the predicted win totals of their opponents for the upcoming season, the Lions’ schedule ranks out as the eleventh easiest per the folks over at Sharp Football Analysis. They will face seven teams with winning records from the previous year, including four teams with 12 or more wins and three teams with less than six wins.

Case for the Over

There are several reasons to believe the Detroit Lions can exceed their win total of 9.5 games in the 2023 season. The Lions’ offense showed significant improvement in the second half of the season. Goff’s performance improved in multiple statistical categories, and he displayed a strong ability to limit turnovers. With another year in the system and the addition of key offensive weapons, Goff has the potential to continue his upward trajectory. The Lions made significant offseason additions to bolster their roster on both sides of the ball. They drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LB Jack Campbell much earlier than anyone expected in the first round, adding talent to both the offense and defense. In free agency, they acquired RB David Montgomery, CB Cameron Sutton, and S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson who thankfully suffered nothing more than an injury scare in camp. These additions, combined with the development of young players like WR Jameson Williams, provide the Lions with a well-rounded roster capable of competing at a high level.

Case for the Under

Despite the Lions’ promising outlook, there are factors that could lead to them falling short of their win 9.5-game win total. The defense, which ranked near the bottom of the league in multiple stat categories, remains a concern. While the offseason additions in the secondary are a step in the right direction, there are still holes on the defensive side of the ball. If the unit fails to improve significantly, the Lions may struggle to win games against stronger opponents. Offensively, while the Lions had a highly productive season in 2022, repeating that level of success may prove challenging. Opposing teams will have had an entire offseason to study and game plan against Ben Johnson’s offense. This increased familiarity could lead to a regression in offensive production. Additionally, Goff’s performance, while improved, was not as successful against top-tier pass defenses. The NFC North also poses a challenge for the Lions. While expected to be favored or at worst small underdogs in divisional games, the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, and Green Bay Packers all have talented rosters and the potential to compete for the division title.

Detroit Lions Schedule

Week 1: at Chiefs (TNF)

Week 2: vs. Seahawks

Week 3: vs. Falcons

Week 4: at Packers (TNF)

Week 5: vs. Panthers

Week 6: at Buccaneers

Week 7: at Ravens

Week 8: vs. Raiders (MNF)

Week 9: Bye Week

Week 10: at Chargers

Week 11: vs. Bears

Week 12: vs. Packers (TNF)

Week 13: at Saints

Week 14: at Bears

Week 15: vs. Broncos

Week 16: at Vikings

Week 17: at Cowboys (SNF)

Week 18: vs. Vikings

Detroit Lions Season Win Total Analysis

The Detroit Lions enter 2023 with high expectations after a strong close to the prior year. They have a win total of 9.5 games, and the -125 juice on the over reflects the belief NFL bettors have of the Lions potentially surpassing that mark. However, I still don’t believe Goff is nearly as good as advertised and expect the negative regression monster to pay him a visit. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if another double-digit interception tally is accrued. I have major concerns about the offense being able to mimic last season’s marks. The volatile nature of the NFC North also presents a challenge. Ultimately, whether the Lions exceed or fall short of their win total will depend on the performance of key players and their ability to navigate a much more competitive cast of opponents. The jump in the season win total odds is a bit rich for my blood! I’ll fade the hype after being all-in a season ago and take a position on the under with the hope of getting involved with the BetRivers in-season win total market should Detroit get out to another slow start.

Detroit Lions Season Win Total Prediction: Under 9.5 +101

Bet NFL Win Totals at BetRivers Sportsbook