Green Bay Packers Season Win Total Odds, Pick & Prediction

Year five of the Matt LaFleur regime is going to be interesting. Last year, the Green Bay Packers were forced to deal with the absence of Davante Adams after the stud pass catcher bolted for Sin City to play for the Raiders. Aaron Rodgers struggled immensely because of it in guiding what proved to be one of the more ineffective offensive attacks throughout his tenure in Green Bay. Well, the future Hall of Famer is no longer a member of the franchise after being shipped off to New York. With that, the Jordan Love era will begin in earnest when the Pack takes to the gridiron for its season opener against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears. Oddsmakers at BetRivers Sportsbook see this as a major downgrade when accounting for Green Bay’s season win total odds entering the 2023-24 NFL betting season. Having only thrown 83 passes in his NFL career, NFL bettors truly have no idea what to expect from Love. Even so, I’ve seen some love being given to this team with some talking heads of the belief this version of the Cheeseheads has what it takes to win yet another division championship. I’m not buying that noise as wide open the NFC North looks to be heading into the regular season!

Green Bay Packers: So Just Who is this Jordan Love Fella?

The Green Bay Packers are coming off a disappointing 2022-23 campaign, finishing with an 8-9 record and failing to make the playoffs after falling at home to a Lions team playing for absolutely nothing in the season finale. Despite having a league-average schedule, the Packers couldn’t capitalize on many winnable games, including losses to lesser opponents like the Titans, Commanders, and Jets. The offense struggled to find consistency, especially in games where they were installed short favorites per the closing NFL odds. Despite the disappointing season, the Packers had some luck factors working in their favor, such as injury luck, opponent field goal percentage, and net turnover rate. However, they struggled in the red zone, particularly inside the opponent’s ten-yard line, where they had a low success rate and committed turnovers at a high rate. The failures in critical situations proved to be the difference in several one-score defeats.

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Green Bay Packers Season Wins Total: 7.5

Looking ahead to the 2023-24 season, the Packers face an easier schedule compared to the prior year. Sharp Football Analysis currently has it ranked No. 14. They don’t oppose a single playoff team until Week 7 when they square off against the rival Vikings, while the Chiefs are the only bonafide Super Bowl contender on the schedule. The Packers will also benefit from playing warm-weather teams like the Rams, Chargers, and Bucs at home in potentially bad weather conditions. As stated, this is a different season however with the win total the lowest it’s been since 2007 in what proved to be Brett Favre’s final season under center. Regardless, this franchise had recently taken care of its supporters with the over cashing in three straight times before coming up short last season.

Case for the Over

There are several reasons to be optimistic about the Green Bay Packers surpassing their projected win total of 7.5 games for the 2023-24 season. Firstly, although the departure of Aaron Rodgers may be seen as a setback, it also presents an opportunity for Jordan Love to prove himself as a capable starting quarterback. Love has shown potential in limited playing time and has had time to learn and develop behind Rodgers. If Love can provide league-average quarterback play and make use of the talent around him, the Packers’ offense has the potential to be successful. Secondly, the Packers’ young wide receiver group, led by Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, has shown promise and has the potential to take a step forward in their development. Rookie Jayden Reed could also prove to be a perfect complement after tearing things up in East Lansing. If these young receivers can continue to improve and provide consistent production, it will greatly benefit Love and the Packers’ offense. Additionally, the Packers have a favorable schedule that could give them an opportunity to build momentum early in the season.

Case for the Under

While there are reasons to be optimistic about the Packers exceeding their projected win total, there are also potential concerns that could lead to them falling short. The biggest is the uncertainty surrounding Jordan Love as the starting quarterback with him having a grand total of one NFL start under his belt. It remains to be seen how he will perform in a full-time starting role and whether he can handle the pressure and expectations that come with being the Packers’ field general. Another potential concern is the lack of proven talent in the receiving corps. While there is potential for growth and improvement from young receivers like Watson and Doubs, they have yet to establish themselves as consistent playmakers at the NFL level. If they fail to take a significant step forward in their development, it could hinder the success of the Packers’ offense. Lastly, the NFC North has become a more competitive division, with teams like the Lions, Vikings, and Bears making significant improvements in the offseason. The Packers cannot afford to overlook these divisional opponents, as every game will be crucial in the race for the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers Schedule

Week 1: at Bears

Week 2: at Falcons

Week 3: vs. Saints

Week 4: vs. Lions (TNF)

Week 5: at Raiders (MNF)

Week 6: Bye Week

Week 7: at Broncos

Week 8: vs. Vikings

Week 9: vs. Rams

Week 10: at Steelers

Week 11: vs. Chargers

Week 12: at Lions

Week 13: vs. Chiefs (SNF)

Week 14: at Giants (MNF)

Week 15: vs. Buccaneers

Week 16: at Panthers

Week 17: at Vikings (SNF)

Week 18: vs. Bears

Green Bay Packers Season Win Total Analysis

The Packers’ 2023-24 outlook largely hinges upon Jordan Love’s performance. If he can provide at least league-average quarterback play in his first season as a starter and the young wide receivers step up, the Packers have a chance to surprise and win double-digit games. The offensive line and strong 1-2 punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will provide ample support, but the defense must dramatically improve against the run (No. 26) and in defending quarterbacks who pose a rushing threat. I think too many people are giving this team the benefit of the doubt and honestly believe the lack of a veteran presence under center for the first time in seemingly forever isn’t a big deal. I beg to differ! Doubs and Watson have already proven to be injury prone and very little was done to shore up the problem area defending the run. Not sure why, but DC Joe Barry was also retained after calling the shots for back-to-back disappointing defensive units. I faded this squad last year by hitting the under of 11 wins, and will do so again in 2023-24 by going under 7.5 while also seeking out an even lower alternate line to secure a better ROI just in case Love craps the bed.

Green Bay Packers Season Win Total Prediction: Under 7.5 -112

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