Chicago Bears Season Win Total Odds, Pick & Prediction

The Chicago Bears had a challenging 2022-23 campaign, finishing with a disappointing 3-14 record that afforded them the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. It was expected to be a rebuilding year after hiring Head Coach Matt Eberflus and making several roster changes. Because of it, I confidently hammered the under of their 6.5-game season win total odds and gladly cashed that ticket in at BetRivers Sportsbook after my beloved Bears only tasted the thrill of victory on three occasions. Even so, the team showed flashes of excitement, mainly due to the electrifying performances of QB Justin Fields who showcased his running ability, accumulating over 1,100 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. However, his passing game progress was limited, ranking No. 36 out of 41 quarterbacks in PFF pass grade. With a bonafide WR1 now on the roster after bringing D.J. Moore over from Carolina in the haul received for the No. 1 pick, there are no more excuses for No. 1. He must prove he’s more than just an electrifying playmaker with his legs, must show that he can run an NFL offense with confidence!

Chicago Bears: Can Fields take the Next Step?

The Bears made several key additions during the offseason to address needs and strengthen the roster. In free agency, they signed guard Nate Davis and RB D’Onta Foreman, providing much-needed help to the offensive line and depth to the backfield. On the defensive side of the ball, they added former Titans DE Demarcus Walker, former Raiders DT Andrew Billings, and linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds from the Eagles and Bills respectively. These signings aim to improve the team’s overall performance and address the defensive struggles from the previous season that saw Chicago finish last in EPA and 31st in explosive pass percentage allowed, while at the same time lose five games by 20+ points.

Chicago’s most significant move came in the draft when they traded their top overall pick. The trade allowed them to acquire a stud pass catcher and additional draft picks, which they utilized to select tackle Darnell Wright from Tennessee with the tenth pick. Moore’s addition, alongside existing pass-catchers Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney, provides quarterback Justin Fields with his most talented receiving corps since taking over the QB1 reins a few games into 2021.

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Chicago Bears Season Wins Total: 7.5

The Chicago Bears’ season win total for 2023 is set at 7.5 according to BetRivers. That number comes off as a big surprise in my book considering the team only won three games last season which moved the franchise to a despicable 25-41 the last four years. It ran up against what Sharp Football Analysis expected to be the fourth easiest schedule in the league last season, and will now oppose the sixth easiest schedule when going by opposing win totals. The Kansas City Chiefs represent their only top-tier opponent, with matchups against the Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns, and Detroit Lions providing the next level of competition. The bye follows their only appearance on MNF, and they get the benefit of hosting the Lions, Cardinals, and Falcons – three dome teams – at home in Chicago with Mother Nature likely to play a role. The backend of the schedule will go a long way in deciding whether Chicago can snap a four-year stretch of failing to go over their win total.

Case for the Over

Moves were made to shore up the inefficiencies both sides of the ball experienced throughout the 2022-23 NFL betting season. Upper management addressed issues in the pass-catching corps, and more importantly, made what I deem significant upgrades along the offensive line. All the additions inject talent and depth, which was severely lacking last season. Another factor working in the Bears’ favor is the uncertainty within the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings, who won the division last season, had defensive issues and face challenges of their own. The Detroit Lions, despite recent struggles, showed enough improvement for oddsmakers to anoint them the odds-on +125 favorites to take home bragging rights; but it’s the Detroit Lions! The Packers, led by new quarterback Jordan Love, have question marks surrounding their offense. The Bears have an opportunity to capitalize on the uncertainty and make a push for a higher win total.

Case for the Under

While there are reasons to be optimistic about the Bears’ prospects, there are also factors that could lead to falling short of their season win total. One concern is the overall competitiveness within the NFC North. The Lions finished the previous season strong, winning eight of their final ten games and making significant additions in the draft. The Vikings could march an entirely different defense onto the field now with Brian Flores overlooking it. The Packers still possess a talented roster even though No. 12 is now the QB1 of the Jets. If these divisional opponents perform well, it could make it challenging for the Bears to secure wins within the division. Additionally, the Bears’ success will depend on the chemistry and adjustment of their offseason additions. It may take time for the new players to acclimate, and a slow start to the season could hinder their ability to capitalize on winnable early games.

Chicago Bears Schedule

Week 1: vs. Packers

Week 2: at Buccaneers

Week 3: at Chiefs

Week 4: vs. Broncos

Week 5: at Commanders (TNF)

Week 6: vs. Vikings

Week 7: vs. Raiders

Week 8: at Chargers (SNF)

Week 9: at Saints

Week 10: vs. Panthers (TNF)

Week 11: at Lions

Week 12: at Vikings (MNF)

Week 13: Bye Week

Week 14: vs. Lions

Week 15: at Browns

Week 16: vs. Cardinals

Week 17: vs. Falcons

Week 18: at Packers

Chicago Bears Season Win Total Analysis

Though there was absolutely no passing game to speak of and the defense stunk to the high heavens last season, oddsmakers across the board expect there to be improvement in year two of the Eberflus regime. Who am I to argue with them?! Even though this team only won three games a year ago, their season win total is up two full games from where it went off the board just a short season ago. While I don’t think Chicago will be doing the Super Bowl Shuffle in 2023-24, I’m excited about the franchise taking another step forward and can’t wait to see what Justin Fields can do with a much-improved supporting cast. That being said, I won’t be making a pre-season investment on their win total. Gun to the head, I’d take the over but that has much to do with downing a number of Bears Kool-Aid shots. Instead, I’ll wait to see how the early season schedule pans out and then pounce on the over in the readjusted in-season win total market with many winnable games on the docket at the tail end of the schedule.

Chicago Bears Season Win Total Prediction: Over 7.5 -124

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