The Bengals and Dolphins kick off Week 4 with an exciting matchup on Thursday night. Both teams are off to surprising starts, though that doesn’t necessarily mean good news for each side. Miami is 3-0, having taken down the Patriots, Ravens, and Bills over the first three games of the year. And they’ve been able to pick up those wins in a variety of different ways.

Miami won the opener with defense holding New England to seven points in a 20-7 victory. In Week 2, though, they exploded for 28 points in the fourth quarter against the Ravens to complete a three-score second-half comeback. Then, this past Sunday, they pulled out an improbable 21-19 win over Super Bowl favorite Buffalo despite being outgained by 285 yards.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, entered the year with big expectations after last year’s postseason run. The Bengals have largely disappointed, though they did pick up their first win of the season on Sunday against the Jets. Cincinnati dropped close games to the Steelers and a Dak Prescott-less Dallas team, and they’ll enter Week 4 at 1-2. Still, the talent on the offensive side of the ball is undeniable, and they appear to be getting on track.

Can Cincy halt Miami’s three-game winning streak or will the Dolphins stay undefeated?

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Date and Time: Thursday, September 29, 2022, at 8:15 PM EST
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
TV Coverage: Amazon Prime Video

BetMaker previews the upcoming matchup and gives a prediction for Thursday night.

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Picks

Miami enters this matchup averaging just under 28 points per game, which sits near the top of the NFL. The passing attack ranks fourth in the league at 291 yards per game behind star pass catchers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as well as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. But while the passing offense has thrived, the rushing attack could use some work (31^st in NFL).

On defense, Miami is actually allowing the second most yards in the NFL. They’ve been able to hold foes out of the endzone, however, keeping opponents at 21 points per game. We mentioned that the Dolphins were outgained 497-212 in last week’s win, but that won’t be a winning recipe in most contests. It is worth noting that Miami has played maybe the two best offenses in the AFC, and they’ll face another worthy opponent Thursday.

The Bengals will bring a strong offensive unit to this matchup, with Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd. There are playmakers all over the field, though the key for Cincy is offensive line play. The Bengals have allowed 15 sacks through three games, which has resulted in four Joe Burrow interceptions. Last week, he finally got some protection and exploded for 275 yards and three scores. If the line can keep him upright, the offense will click.

On defense, the Bengals are allowing 18 points per game, but unlike the Dolphins, the offensive units they’ve faced have been lacking. The trio of quarterbacks faced by this Cincy defense includes Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush, and Joe Flacco. So, it’s no surprise to see the unit holding top 10 marks in points allowed, rush defense, and total defense. Miami should present Bengals defenders with their first true test.

NFL Week 4 Betting Odds

Find all updated NFL betting odds at BetRivers sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins: +3
Cincinnati Bengals: -3
Over/Under: 48 points

Odds Analysis

The Bengals get the nod playing at home, entering as three-point favorites in Cincinnati. Miami comes in as the underdog with the spread at +3, holding money line odds of +128. The over/under for the matchup is set at 48 points.

This will be Cincinnati’s fourth game as a favorite this year, though that hasn’t always spelled success. The Bengals are 1-2 SU and ATS as favorites, losing to both the Steelers and Cowboys. They did cover last Sunday against the Jets.

Miami, meanwhile, will enter as an underdog for the third straight week. They’ve posted a perfect 3-0 record ATS this year, taking down the Ravens and Bills as ‘dogs in each of the last two games. They also covered as slight favorites against division rival New England in Week 1.

The under is 2-1 in Miami’s three games this year, while the under is 3-0 for Cincinnati. The under is also 2-1 in Thursday night games this year, with last week’s Pittsburgh-Cleveland game being the first over thus far. Miami has won each of the last two meetings in this series, covering in both.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins should enter relatively healthy though offensive lineman Greg Little is listed as questionable.

Cincinnati Bengals

DJ Reader and Joe Mixon are listed as questionable on the injury report.

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Free Pick

The Dolphins have been the surprise of the NFL through three games, knocking off three AFC powers in the Patriots, Ravens, and Bills. Unfortunately, that run ends on Thursday. Miami has been lucky to escape each of the last two weeks with wins.

Cincy, meanwhile, looked to finally get into an offensive rhythm last week which isn’t a good sign for upcoming opponents. Miami ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks, which has been the weakness for the Bengals offense. Look for Joe Burrow to get time and build upon last week’s performance.

The Pick: CINCINNATI BENGALS -3