Yale vs. Purdue NCAA Tournament Betting Odds and Prediction

Friday’s early afternoon tip is a big one for Matt Painter’s No. 3 seed Purdue Boilermakers. Since bowing out to Virginia in overtime in the region finals back in 2018, things haven’t gone too well for the Boilers in March Madness betting. They failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament the following season, and then went on to get upset by North Texas as decided 7.5-point favorites in the first round last season. The time for redemption has arrived with the team having an excellent opportunity to punch a ticket back to the Sweet Sixteen with the bracket shaping up nicely to do exactly just that. In order to pull off the feat, they’ll need to defeat the No. 14 Yale Bulldogs out of the Ivy League and follow it up with another triumph over either Texas or Virginia Tech. Of those four teams in the quadrant, Purdue clocks in as the decided -175 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to reach the Sweet 16. Makes sense considering they find themselves substantial neutral court chalk against a Yale outfit that simply doesn’t have the horses to hang with them for a full 40.

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds

Yale +16

Purdue -16

O/U 143

Betting Odds Analysis

This perceived one-sided affair opened with the Boilermakers installed lofty 16.5-point favorites and the total set at 144. Early action has come in on the under, and surprisingly the Bulldogs. The total is down a point to 143 due to 74 percent of the bets and 57 percent of the money expecting points to be tougher to come by. Yale totals split down the middle (13-13-1), but the Boilermakers cashed over tickets at an 18-16 clip when including its three played games in the Big Ten tournament. As for the point spread, the number to beat is floating between -16 and -15 by way of only 44 percent of the bets and only 12 percent of the money of the belief Purdue has the manpower to overcome the double-digit chalk. Makes sense when you consider the Boilers won 17 of the 19 times it went off the board favored by at least 10 points but only managed eight covers against the closing betting odds; the under cashed in 10 of those skirmishes.

Yale Bulldogs

The Bulldogs went on to win the Ivy League tournament after defeating Princeton outright in the finals as short 3.5-point underdogs. The pair of conference tourney wins moved James Jones’ kids to 3-2 SU and ATS on neutral courts to date. However, none of those matchups occurred against teams that qualified for the Big Dance. Against the three teams played that did punch a ticket, they fell to Seton Hall (80-44), Vermont (61-53), and Auburn (86-64) by an average of 22 points per game. Needless to say, but not a single one of those games saw them cover the closing spread. KenPom.com ranks Yale No. 147 overall with a less than formidable offense (No. 210). Defense (No. 103) is where the Bulldogs butter their bread, but this test will be their toughest yet.

Purdue Boilermakers

Many are likely out to fade Purdue in its first round matchup simply due to the fact that they invade Milwaukee having not scored a point spread cover since February 8 when it took the wood to Illinois at home. Since then, they’re 6-4 SU and a bankroll destroying 0-8-2 against the spread when going by the closing lines. Their recent run to the B1G tourney finals saw them fail to cover all three games against Penn State, Michigan State, and Iowa. That being said, the core group of Jaden Ivey, Mason Gillis, Sasha Stefanovic, Trevion Williams, and Zach Edey were all on last year’s team that got bounced in the first round after falling to the Mean Green in overtime. Needless to say, but I’m expecting a locked in and determined Boilers outfit to hit the Fiserv Forum hardwood late Thursday afternoon.

The Wager

I’m taken aback by all the early week love for the Ivy League reps in this 14/3 tilt. The Bulldogs haven’t beaten anybody this season! While their defense is what got them to this point, college basketball bettors have already seen what that unit did against teams also currently in the Field of 64. Purdue is the owner of the nation’s top ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 4 ranked effective field goal percentage. On top of that, it’s going to own the battle of the boards at both ends of the court eliminating nearly all of Yale’s second chance scoring opportunities, while taking advantage of multiple looks at the basket themselves to pile up the points. This is a statement game for the Boilers; especially when taking last year’s early dismissal into account. I truly believe Painter’s squad looks to throw the hammer down and will attack them from a three-pronged angle: 1H (-9.5), full game (-16) and over the team total (80) – with confidence!