Yale vs. Purdue NCAA Tournament Betting Odds and Prediction
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With a rich tradition of earning the auto-bid out of the America East Conference since the turn of the century, the No. 13 Vermont Catamounts are a trendy underdog at FanDuel Sportsbook to put the No. 4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks on upset watch in the opening round of the tourney. Sorry; I’m not buying it! Yes, Ryan Davis is a stud big man that will undoubtedly get his, but Vermont will need much more than him going off to compete with a Hogs outfit that will look to hit the ground running after pissing all over itself in the SEC tournament semis against Texas A&M. While it can also be said that Vermont will hit the hardwood determined as well after seeing their bid to the dance stolen last season, Arkansas is simply just a different breed than what the Cats run up against over the course of the regular season. As experienced Vermont is, I’m going to defer to the caliber of the Razorback athletes instead and suggest fading the noise by laying the reduced price with Coach Musselman’s Hogs. If the 3-balls aren’t dropping for the underdog, this game will get away from them real quick and I don’t envision their preferred snail pace being able to get them back into it enough to cover the closing college basketball odds.
FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Odds
Vermont +5
Arkansas -5
O/U 139
Betting Odds Analysis
The betting line for this NCAA tournament first round matchup opened with Arkansas laying 6.5-points and the total set at 140.5. Early action has gone the way of the underdog and under with the point spread down to +5 and total to 139. The 1.5-point line move has been predicated upon 68 percent of the bets and a whopping 81 percent of the money going the way of the America East reps. Vermont ripped through its regular season schedule with ease amassing a 25-5 overall record (16-13-1 ATS) that saw them win all but one of their 18 played conference games. The betting public is enamored with this 13 seed! The total is down a point and a half as well which makes sense considering the Catamounts only chance at winning let alone covering is forcing their style of play which finds them playing to the No. 289 adjusted tempo rating per the Pomeroy Ratings. That being said, these teams have cashed over tickets at a 35-25 clip combined.
Vermont Catamounts
Get used to the names Ben Shungu and the aforementioned Ryan Davis. The G/F duo is the lifeblood of the Catamounts offense with the former averaging 19.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game, while the latter clocks in with 17.3 and 5.0 respectively. Vermont averages 74 points per game (No. 109) and ranks No. 15 in the country in field goal percentage while ranking in the top-75 from behind the arc (No. 74) and charity stripe (No. 60). It’s also excelled at the other end of the court in conceding an average of just 61.5 points (No. 20) while allowing just over a 41 percent success rate from the field (No. 72). All said, the gaudy outputs were all tallied against a laughable schedule strength that checks in at No. 330. They’re playing with the big boys now!
Arkansas Razorbacks
The last recollection CBB bettors have of the Razorbacks is the squad getting curb stomped 82-64 by the Aggies in the SEC tourney. J.D Notae and Jaylin Williams were absolute no-shows in that one. The former only managed five points on 2-of-8 shooting which included going for a bagel from beyond the arc on five attempts. The latter only chipped in with four points on only five shot attempts. Normally, this duo accounts for about 30 points per game! Arkansas will be looking to push the ball ad nauseum with it playing to the No. 27 overall tempo rating. Vermont has a deep rotation, but the back end of it isn’t very productive. Though it doesn’t foul much, Arkansas pressing the issue could make things extremely uncomfortable. If forced to go without either of their two studs for extended periods of time, I fully expect Arkansas to take full advantage.
The Wager
I’m taken aback by the lack of respect Arkansas is receiving in this matchup. The Catamounts make hay scoring the basketball all over the court whether close to the rack or from long range. However, the Hogs excel in both 2-point (No. 47) and 3-point defense (No. 128). I get it, Vermont looks to have all the pertinent pieces to give Arkansas a major test. It shoots the ball well. Plays solid defense. Doesn’t foul, and plays at a snail’s pace. All those parameters foreshadow a tight game playing out. Still, I’m going to stick by my belief that the Razorbacks are simply a notch or two above what Vermont is used to running up against. At minimum, this is a multi-possession win for the higher seed whom I believe takes over in the second half to run away with the win and cover. I’ll pay to see the Catamounts prove me wrong and thwart the curse of being the trendy dog of the first round NCAA tournament betting lines.
