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It is Super Bowl week, and that means the PGA Tour is in Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. The event has been rebranded in a sense, as it has gone from the Waste Management Phoenix Open to the WM Phoenix Open. A strong field is assembled with six of the world’s Top 10 players in the field including No. 1 Jon Rahm who is listed as the golf betting favorite. I had a big winner two weeks ago with Luke List at odds of 66-1 and I am kicking myself for not having Tom Hoge last week, as I had him in the matchups article, but I didn’t have him in the odds article. Let’s look at Waste Management Phoenix Open odds and picks.
Venue: This event takes place at TPC Scottsdale on the Stadium course which is a par 71 that measures 7,261 yards. The course has hosted the Phoenix Open every year since 1987. Last year the players had a 69.4 scoring average at TPC Scottsdale.
Last Year: Brooks Koepka came from five shots behind in the final round to win the event from Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth. Going into the final round it was Schauffele and Spieth tied for the lead but Koepka shot a 6-under 65 which included an eagle on the Par-4 17th hole. It was the second time that Koepka got the win in this event. Schauffele and K.H. Lee finished in a tie for second with Spieth, Carlos Ortiz and Steve Stricker tied for fourth.
TV Coverage: CBS and Golf Channel
Wm Phoenix Open Odds
Jon Rahm +750
Justin Thomas +1200
Viktor Hovland +1400
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Jordan Spieth +1600
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Xander Schauffele +2000
Brooks Koepka +2700
Scottie Scheffler +2900
Daniel Berger +3100
Tony Finau +3300
Sam Burns +3300
Webb Simpson +3400
Louis Oosthuizen +4100
Bubba Watson +4100
Seamus Power +4100
Matthew Fitzpatrick +4100
Russell Henley +4100
Abraham Ancer +5000
Corey Conners +5000
Talor Gooch +5000
Adam Scott +5000
Harold Varner III +5000
Luke List +5500
Tom Hoge +5500
Maverick McNealy +5500
Harris English +5500
Billy Horschel +5500
Max Homa +6500
Rickie Fowler +7000
Francesco Molinari +8000
Pat Perez +8000
Kevin Kisner +8000
Matt Kuchar +8000
Andrew Putnam +8000
Branden Grace +9000
Joel Dahmen +9000
Gary Woodland +9000
Keith Mitchell +9000
All other players are listed with odds of 100-1 or more
Favorite
Jon Rahm +750
I say this every week and I have to say it again, there is very little value in betting golf favorites. Rahm is the top ranked player in the world and he has played well in this event, but this is a strong field and Rahm is definitely not a sure thing. Rahm has finished in the Top 16 in all six of his career appearances. Rahm may very well win this week, but I will continue to do what I do each week and that is avoid the golf betting favorite.
Value Picks
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Matsuyama has been really good in this event with wins in 2016 and 2017 and he leads the PGA Tour in a number of categories at TPC Scottsdale. Matsuyama is in solid form and you can make a strong case that he should be listed at single-digit odds. I’ll go with Matsuyama at this price.
Patrick Cantlay +1600
I said last week that Cantlay was overvalued simply because he was listed as the betting favorite. He really didn’t play that great last week and he still finished in the top five. He is on the leaderboard seemingly every week but he just hasn’t been able to make enough putts. Perhaps this will be the week. We definitely are getting more value than last week on Cantlay.
Daniel Berger +3100
Berger had to withdraw last week at Pebble Beach with a back issue, but if he does feel good this week, he could have some value at this longshot number. He is very accurate off the tee and he is in good overall form. He also leads the field in this event in Shots Gained: Approach. I’ll monitor Berger’s status, but if he is a go, he could have some value.
Webb Simpson +3400
Simpson has been very good on this course including a win in 2020 and a second-place finish in 2017. He has the type of game that does well on this course and we get him at a nice price this week.
Russell Henley +4100
Henley is second in the field in Shots Gained: Approach at TPC Scottsdale. He nearly won earlier this season so we know he is in good form. He has the type of game similar to Simpson’s so it makes sense he would do well in this event.
Pat Perez +8000
I’ll throw on big longshot in here and take Perez. He is playing well of late with a sixth-place finish at Torrey Pines and a tie for 9th last week at Pebble Beach. I’ll take a flyer on Perez at this big price.
Check out the latest Waste Management Phoenix Open odds at SugarHouse Sportsbook.
