Week 4 NFL Totals Best Bets

It was another profitable week on the over/under at BetRivers sportsbook hitting two of three picks for the second straight week. In Week 3 there was another shift back toward the UNDER with 11 of 16 games playing below the closing total on the NFL betting line. In Week 1 we saw 12 games cash the UNDER while Week 2 had 13 of 16 games play over the total. So, if the trend continues in Week 4 we should a majority of games hit the OVER. Unfortunately things don’t work that way and it’s just coincidental the NFL betting picks turned out the way they did.

I’m not complaining rather just pointing out a betting trend. And it’s hard to complain after cashing two of my three NFL totals best bets for a second week in a row. I said at the time that we should see points in the Chargers/Vikings game just not enough to go over the total of 54. And that’s exactly what happened with the Bolts pulling out a 28-24 victory. The other winner was the UNDER 43 between Pittsburgh and Las Vegas. A questionable coaching decision helped win that bet. Trailing by eight with just over two minutes left in the fourth the Raiders kicked a field goal for the final 23-18 margin. Vegas got the ball back on their 15 with only 12 seconds left. Let’s move ahead to Week 4 to see if we can keep this hot streak going on our NFL totals best bets.

NFL Week 4 Totals Best Bets

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: UNDER 43

Both teams struggled on offense last week and now they’re travelling to London for a game against each other. It’s not an ideal situation for either side but it is what it is. I never expected the Atlanta Falcons to have an explosive offense and they certainly lacked pop in last week’s loss to Detroit failing to reach the end zone in a 20-6 loss. If Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier can’t run the ball the team is in trouble. The duo combined for just 45 yards on 17 carries against the Lions.

The lack of offense is concerning for the Jags, who scored nine points in Week 2 and were shutout in the first half of last week’s 37-17 blowout loss to Houston. Trevor Lawrence has just one TD pass in those games. Jacksonville’s pass defense has been shaky, but it will be tough for Desmond Ridder to take advantage. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven’t allowed much giving up just 18 points and 287.7 yards per game. If you’re going to bet on NFL games backing the UNDER in this one is a smart move.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Pick: OVER 53.5

I backed the OVER with the Buffalo Bills last week and they turned in one of the best defensive games of the season for any club in their 37-3 win over Washington sacking Sam Howell nine times and intercepting four of his passes. That was the only loss I had on my totals bets. And that was against a team not as polished or talented as the Dolphins. We saw what the Fins can do amassing over 700 total yards and 70 points against the Broncos. They also erupted for 536 yards in a season-opening 36-34 win over the Chargers.

Getting over their loss to the Jets in Week 1 when Josh Allen turned the ball over four times, the Bills have displayed a potent offense. And there are fireworks when these teams hookup. They combined for 65 points in last season’s playoff encounter and totaled 61 points in the final regular season meeting cashing the OVER on the NFL betting line both times.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants

Pick: OVER 47.5

Backing the OVER on this NFL wager is based solely on the performance of the Seattle Seahawks. Geno Smith and the offense have been solid the last two games and they’ve needed to be since the defense has been generous. Smith threw for 296 yards and a TD and Kenneth Walker III ran for 97 and two scores as the Seahawks compiled 425 yards while scoring 37 points for a second straight game.

Andy Dalton picked them apart with 361 passing yards and two TDs giving hope that Daniel Jones could have success. And he did in the second half of the Arizona game leading the Giants to 31 points and a comeback victory. In their other 10 quarters the Giants have just one TD. Against a below average Seattle defense and with extra time to prepare, I’m going to bet on this NFL game going OVER the total.

Check out the latest NFL betting odds at BetRivers.