Week 4 NFL Totals Best Bets
September 29, 2023
Week 4 NFL Parlay Best Bets
September 29, 2023
We ended up splitting our NFL player prop bets in Week 3 over at Caesars Sportsbook, but still took home a nice haul after cashing that +550 ticket on Kenneth Walker III sauntering into the end zone twice. Justin Fields came up two yards short of going over his rushing yards prop, while Deshaun Watson smashed his passing yards prop in his best showing as a Brown but failed to score the anytime touchdown. As mentioned, Walker III had a big day on the ground easily surpassing his 64.5-yard rushing prop. Though Najee Harris managed to go over his rushing prop, he didn’t impress which could possibly see Jaylen Warren get even more touches moving forward. Tank Dell was the Houston WR to target last week. Not Nico Collins; unfortunately. Zay Flowers was the Ravens most heavily targeted receiver as expected. Unfortunately, the 10 targets and eight receptions amassed a laughable 48 yards which came a half-yard short of going over his receiving yards prop – Gross! Kyle Pitts’ nightmarish start to the season for his fantasy supporters continued last week, but his five receptions on nine targets were turned into 41 yards which was good enough to exceed his pathetic 33.5-yard impost. Let’s see if we can’t bang out some more player prop best bet winners in Week 4 – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
Bet Week 4 Player Props at Caesars Sportsbook
Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards -110 + Anytime Touchdown +145
The BillsMafia will be privy to a big one on Sunday with AFC East bragging rights on the line. Josh Allen always seems to get up whenever matched up against the Dolphins. Lifetime versus Miami, Allen sports a 106.1 QB rating with 31 total TD passes to just five picks. Whenever Buffalo partakes in a meaningful game, he always seems to make it a point to pace the offense with his legs. In two matchups against the Fins last year, he scrambled 18 times for 124 total yards and 6.9 yards per carry. With Miami’s secondary still banged up, I expect to see a plethora of RPO’s that give him high percentage chances to do damage with both his arm and legs. He’s exceeded this yardage impost in each of his last four starts against Miami, and I fully expect the streak to remain intact come Sunday afternoon.
James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards -115 + Anytime Touchdown +110
James Cook gets a bad rap in fantasy circles due to what’s been an early-season inability to get into the end zone. Chicks dig tuddies don’t ya know?! Regardless, astute NFL prop bettors know the kid is a gem as dominant he’s been as the decided RB1 of the league’s No. 7 ranked rushing attack. His near 15.0 attempts per game have averaged just short of 90.0 YPG through three games. He’ll get an opportunity to better his 6.1 yard per carry average against a leaky and possibly fatigued Dolphins run defense that’s served up 112.3 YPG to opposing running backs. This being Miami’s third road game through four weeks, look for Cook’s No. 12 ranked explosive run rate and No. 9 ranked yards after contact per attempt to be too hot to handle.
Jaylen Warren Over 17.5 Receiving Yards -115 + Over 2.5 Receptions -125
I called last week’s bout with the Raiders Najee Harris’ final opportunity to demand a majority share of the looks. He failed to impress regardless of hooking us up by exceeding his rushing yards prop by 10 yards. Jaylen Warren received 11 fewer carries, but bettered him in yards per carry (3.6). He also got four looks out of the backfield to Najee’s zero. Houston’s defense has been one to target when looking for pass catching production from running backs with the Texans allowing 90 yards and 7.5 yards per reception to the position. Of 73 total snaps, Warren’s run a route 47 times and been targeted 34 percent of the time which ranks No. 9 in the NFL. This game represents his opportunity to make the Steelers backfield even more of a time share or take it over, and I think he shines against the Texans suspect and injury-riddled defense.
Calvin Ridley Over 64.5 Receiving Yards -110 + Anytime Touchdown +140
Since erupting for a team-high 101 receiving yards after hauling in eight of 11 targets from Trevor Lawrence in the season opening win over the Colts, it’s been rough sledding for Calvin Ridley and his fantasy supporters the last few weeks. Since then, he’s only managed five catches on 15 targets that resulted in a paltry 72 yards and no tuddies. Player prop bettors are getting a discount on the Jags WR1 this week after his receiving yard props read 60.5, 70.5, and 70.5 the last three weeks presenting a buying opportunity on the Jags premiere WR1 who will be out to show the Falcons exactly what they’ve been missing. Atlanta has been pretty solid defending the pass to date (No. 4), but did so against the impotent pass attacks of the Panthers and Packers before letting Detroit’s WR1 get them for 102 yards after reeling in nine of 12 targets. I expect a similar output put forth in this spot – buy the dip!
Marvin Mims Jr. Anytime Touchdown +440
Courtland Sutton has run 101 routes and been targeted 23 times. Jerry Jeudy has run 65 routes and been targeted 12 times. Heck, Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey have combined for 98 routes and been targeted 13 times. Marvin Mims Jr. has only run 26 routes and been targeted nine times! Guess who owns the highest target per route run percentage of the wide receiver corps? You get a gold star if you said Mims! His 35 percent TPRR is far and away the highest on the roster, while his 24.3 average depth of target nearly doubles the next closest competitor. I’m clueless as to why the coaching staff continues to shackle the rookie! When given the chance, Russell Wilson is constantly looking for him downfield. Chicago sports the league’s third-worst pass defense that serves up 2.3 passing touchdowns per game (No. 27). Should Caesar’s post a receiving yards prop, hit the over immediately! For now, we’ll have to settle for this dart throw on the rook hitting paydirt a third straight week.
Mark Andrews Under 52.5 Receiving Yards -110
It pains me to do this considering Mark Andrews is the TE1 on my home league fantasy team, but I don’t expect him to show out in this road tilt with the Browns. Along with sporting the league’s No. 1 ranked defense, Cleveland has done a sensational job limiting tight end production through the first three weeks in allowing 8.7 scoreless yards per game. On top of that, Andrews has consistently had issues versus the Browns who just last season held him to a grand total of 31 yards and three receptions on nine overall targets. The lone game with Lamar Jackson under center saw him get blanked on two targets! He’s yet to exceed this impost to date and I’ll fade him here against an opponent currently locked in that had his number a season ago.
