Wednesday, May 3 MLB Best Bets

Last Wednesday’s MLB Best Bets ended up 3-2 to turn a profit at PointsBet Sportsbook. The night started off with a loss on the Red Sox with the O’s Tyler Wells outshining Tanner Houck. We split our over position in the battle between Tony Gonsolin and Roansy Contreras only because of Freddie Freeman’s solo blast in the eighth that pushed the combined score over the full game total. We did however close the night with a pair of ticket cashes after the Padres came back to beat the Cubs and went over their team total in the process. Here’s to reeling in some more green with this installment of Hump Day Best Bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 46-40-3 ($545)

LW: 12-10 ($213)

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers

The Snakes could be in line to sweep this two-game interleague series should Zac Gallen continue his current torrid stretch in Tuesday night’s series opener. As such, it’s tough to recommend fading a Rangers team that’s been nothing if not dominant when in the comforts of its own ballpark where it’s gone 11-5 overall. However, playing six-games over .500 has only produced $200+ worth of baseball betting profit which lets it be known the opposition faced hasn’t been quite up to snuff. Kansas City, Oakland, and a struggling Philadelphia team from the season’s outset were in the mix.

While Arizona hasn’t been the greatest away from the desert (7-7, $280) it continues to play a competitive brand of ball in the NL West and enters this series having won three of its last four played series. While Texas has pummeled RHP to the tune of a .788 OPS (No. 5) resulting in 6.4 runs per game (No. 2), this game is on the road and that’s where Merrell Kelly thrives with his 1.15 ERA 3+ runs lower then when at home. Zona has won all three of his road starts and has a number of potent right-handed sticks to throw at Andrew Heaney whom I believe is getting it done with smoke and mirrors. We’ll take the D’backs below average pen out of the equation and back Kelly and the Snakes for the F5 instead.

BET THE DIAMONDBACKS F5 INNINGS

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox

At some point, the Palehose must stop the bleeding! Coming off a tough four-game stretch in which it dropped three of four to fall to 1-6 against the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago opens up a crucial three-game set against the AL Central rival Twins and get their three-best pitchers toeing the starting bump. Dylan Cease will take to the mound in the middle game looking to bounce back from his two poorest showings of the season after Tampa got him for 15 hits (2 HR) and 9 ER over eight combined innings.

He only racked up eight total strikeouts against the Rays which makes it four straight starts that he failed to surpass his K prop. I think that streak comes to an end in start No. 7 against a Twins offense ranked No. 27 in K rate whom the righty has averaged 1+ strikeouts against through 54 career innings pitched. Minnesota isn’t a good fastball hitting team and a bulk of the lineup has struggled against the slider as well with only Will Castro and Donovan Solano possessing positive run values against the pitch per Baseball Savant. This is a get-right spot for No. 84!

BET OVER DYLAN CEASE’S K PROP

Los Angeles Angels vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I’m not exactly sure what happened in the fourth inning of Shohei Ohtani’s last start against the A’s, but I’ll just chalk it up to being nothing but an anomaly as locked in the Japanese import was in his prior five starts. He conceded one or less earned runs in each of them with the five conceded against Oakland only pushing his ERA up to 1.85. The righty is only giving up 2.9 hits per game for crying out loud! While that number is destined to regress to the negative, it likely won’t in this spot against a struggling Cardinals offense that’s managed three or less runs in four of its last five played games.

I’ll tip my hat to Miles Mikolas. He seems to get the job done even though his stuff is as yawnstipating as it gets. While the counting stats are decent evidenced by a 29:9 K/BB ratio, the dude simply just gives up hits – 12.8 per nine to be exact! He’s also serving up 1.7 long balls per start which leads me to believe Mike Trout and co. will be in positions to launch into the cheap seats every time they step in the box. If not for a 5-4 extra innings win over Pittsburgh, St. Louis would be winless in each of Mikolas’ three home starts. Though he just tossed a gem in San Francisco to tally his first dub of the season, this game will play out much differently. Shohei shines and the Angels take Game 2!

BET THE HALOS

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