Wednesday, April 26 MLB Best Bets

Last Wednesday’s MLB Best Bets started off rough, but we cashed the final two positions to churn out a 2-1 showing and turn a profit at PointsBet Sportsbook. Spencer Turnbull battled the Guardians, but a Jose Ramirez 3-run bomb in the sixth inning was all Cleveland needed to log the 3-2 win and hand us the L against the MLB odds. My Cubbies would then erupt to soar past their 4.5-run team total to sweep the series from the A’s in commanding fashion. Then the night was closed out in Beantown where Joe Ryan and the Twins cruised to the 10-4 triumph to win their only game of the series against the Red Sox. Here’s to reeling in some more green with this installment of Hump Day Best Bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 34-30-3 ($332)

LW: 10-7-1 ($115)

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Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles starting pitching staff enters this series on a heater after allowing 20 hits and only three runs over the last four games. However, one of those matchups came against the Nationals No. 27 ranked OPS and the other three coming over the weekend against the Tigers (No. 30). During that stretch, the offense only plated a grand total of 13 runs. Boston invades Camden Yards with MLB’s No. 4 ranked offense that averages 5.7 run per game and owns the league’s No. 8 ranked OPS (.763). Over the last week, Rafael Devers and his mates clock in at No. 6 (.816). I got a feeling Baltimore will need to rely upon the offense more throughout this series, and it currently looks to be in a rut.

Though yet to log a win to date, Tyler Wells has really impressed in allowing 14 hits through 23.1 innings while racking up a solid 16:2 K/BB ratio. He just tossed seven innings of shutout ball at Detroit to log his deepest start of the season. This however will be a much stiffer test with the BoSox ripping the cover off the ball against 4-seamers and also doing work against changeups – Wells’ go-to pitches. Tanner Houck will oppose him, and the righty also enters this start off his deepest outing of the year after logging seven innings of 3 ER and 7 K ball against the Twins. Save for Cedric Mullins, the O’s have struggled with the slider in 2023 and that’s Houck’s primary pitch. Though Baltimore has been a moneymaker at home (7-3, $135), I’m taking a flier with the visitors at a plus-money price!

BET THE RED SOX

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

After backing Johan Oviedo and the Buccos in Tuesday’s series opener, we’ll attack the total in game 2 and look for both offenses to have their way early and often. Michael Grove did absolutely nothing to make me believe he’s ready to hold down a spot in the Dodgers starting rotation. After suffering a groin strain in his last start at Chicago, he was placed on the IL which forced upper management’s hand to bring Tony Gonsolin in early from his rehab from the sprained ankle suffered in Spring Training. I don’t think he’s ready for this task of throwing at a Buccos offense that rakes the 4-seamer and slider per Baseball Savant. I firmly expect Pittsburgh to get to him early forcing Dave Roberts to the pen much earlier than he’d like.

That being said, I also foresee LA’s offense having a grand ‘ol time of it stepping into the box to oppose Roansy Contreras. Though the right-hander is one out away from logging quality starts in three of his four outings, he’s a one-pitch hurler that’s also proven to be wild (4.2 BB/9). That’s a terrible combo to run up against the Dodgers with; especially considering the Dodgers big bats of Muncy, JD, and Freeman tee off on the pitch. They’re even nastier against 4-seamers and that’s basically the only other pitch Roansy offers up – and it sucks! Get your popcorn ready and enjoy the fireworks folks!

BET THE F5 & FG OVER

San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs

So who expected Drew Smyly to toss 7+ innings of near no-hit ball at the Dodgers less than a week removed from showing well against Los Angeles in Tinseltown his previous start? If your hands up, you’re a bold faced liar or you without question have a copy of Biff’s Sports Almanac in your possession. Seriously though, the left-hander has been nothing short of sensational to this point in going 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and stellar 23:5 K/BB ratio. His curve and sinker have been flat-out deadly!

However, I don’t foresee the veteran lasting long in this one running up against a Friars offense that finally looks to be coming around. With Fernando Tatis Jr. finally back in the mix, San Diego just took three of four from the streaking Diamondbacks in the desert and did so by scoring 19 runs in the extended series. That includes getting shutout by Zac Gallen who we backed in that contest! Smyly is no Gallen and I expect fatigue to get the best of him in this spot against an SD lineup that has a couple guys that crush his best offerings (Bogaerts, Machado, Cronenworth).

BET THE PADRES + TEAM TOTAL OVER

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