Last Wednesday’s MLB Best Bets were frustrating to say the least! I challenged the Tampa Bay Rays win streak with Chris Sale and lost even though the BoSox made things interesting late. If that wasn’t enough, a Jose Urena start failed to go over for the first time this season after the righty inexplicably almost logged a quality start against the Cardinals. In Coors no less! It’s very rare that you don’t cash the over of a K prop when your selected hurler tallies nine strikeouts. That unfortunately was exactly the case with Spencer Strider’s prop hitting the board at 9.5 over at PointsBet Sportsbook. The days of getting an honest strikeout offering on Strider look to be over. Thankfully Hunter Greene prevented the goose egg by smashing his 7.5 K prop by logging 10 against the Braves. The 1-3 showing pissed me off to no end! Here’s to reeling in some green with this installment of Hump Day Best Bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 24-23-2 ($217)
LW: 12-12-2 (-$55)
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
It’s crazy but I can’t stop going back to the well with Spencer Turnbull. It’s not like he’s set the pitching mound ablaze through three starts either! That being said, I’ve seen noticeable improvement every step of the way and expect him to build upon his most recent showing after tossing five innings of 1 ER ball at the Blue Jays with six hits allowed and a season-best 6:1 K/BB ratio. This however is a tough sell considering how rough a go the right-hander has had running up against Cleveland.
Through nine starts, he’s 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Hardly outputs to get excited about! The Guardians however sport one of the league’s worst offenses (No. 17) that ranks next to last in the home run department. Turnbull’s only served up one long ball through 13.0 combined innings and will enter this start confident. His opponent will be the uninspiring Cal Quantrill who just barely qualified for his first quality start last time out. Nothing about this dude’s repertoire breeds confidence with him the owner of a 5.91 ERA and .292 BAA through two road starts. After rediscovering how to score runs over the weekend, I expect Detroit’s tough to watch offense to do work in the series finale.
BET THE TIGERS
Chicago Cubs vs. Oakland A’s
Fingers crossed James Kaprielian gets the start for this one as bad the right-hander has been through his first three turns. He’s allowed 5, 7, and 6 runs through 13.1 combined innings of work with each and every one of those runs earned. Opponents are batting .310 against him with five long balls launched into the cheap seats. Only once has he been able to get five innings under his belt in a single start, and now he’ll run up against a confident Cubs offense that just got done playing long ball in Chavez Ravine against the Dodgers pitching staff.
Chicago is averaging 5.0 runs per game against RHP, and has been swinging some big sticks when Justin Steele takes to the starting bump. Since only managing three runs in his season debut against Milwaukee, the Cubbies have combined for 18 runs in his last two starts against Texas and LA. Cody Bellinger and Patrick Wisdom are swinging hot bats right now, and Chicago’s going for 6.0 runs per game away from the “Friendly Confines.” We might as well get the best of it now if this early season trend of backing the over of opponent team totals in Kaprielian starts has legs!
BET OVER THE CUBS TEAM TOTAL
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
With just nine hits and 6 ER allowed through 19.0 innings over his first three starts, Joe Ryan is without a doubt the best arm the Twins send to the starting bump every fifth day. Most importantly, Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 whenever he leads the team into battle. That perfect record remained intact last time out in The Bronx where the right-hander spun seven innings of brilliant three hit and 1 ER ball at Aaron Judge and Co. He’s currently a 90-1 dog to win the AL Cy Young Award and that’s something you should consider throwing a beer money investment at immediately!
Though likely to be installed decided road chalk to win this game, I can’t help but lay it running up against the fossil that is Corey Kluber and the struggling Red Sox. While Kluber showed well through four innings in his most recent start at Tampa Bay, it all blew up for him in the fifth. When it was said and done, he ended up giving up four earned and another home run through 4.2 innings. The veteran righty stands 0-3 with a bloated 6.92 ERA and 6.71 FIP which means his poor defense has had little to do with the ugly outputs. Even with injuries currently hampering the Twins batting lineup, I still expect Byron Buxton and Co. to have a day and for Ryan to shine. Bet Minny on the moneyline and -1.5 run-line to make this a 1-run alternative line wager.
BET THE TWINS
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