Texas Tech vs. Duke NCAA Tournament Betting Odds and Prediction

The Duke Blue Devils put an end to a five-game losing streak against the closing college basketball odds last time out in the 85-76 second round win against the Michigan State Spartans. In doing so, Mike Krzyzewski’s kids are on the precipice of advancing into the Elite Eight for the third time in the last four NCAA tournaments. All that stands in the No. 2 seeds way is Mark Adams and the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders who cruised past their opening round opponent and then separated late against Notre Dame to punch a ticket to the Sweet 16 for the third time in the last four Big Dances. FanDuel Sportsbook is of the belief the Coach K farewell tour ends on Saturday night in the Chase Center with the lower seed currently favored by a single point. Makes sense considering how closely ranked these teams are on the most up to date Pomeroy Ratings. Personally, I had Davidson upsetting the Dookies in my bracket, but they failed to get by MSU. Sparty actually had the Blue Devils on the ropes, but failed to land the death blow. Should the Red Raiders thrive as I expect they will, Duke won’t be as lucky this time around.

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds

Texas Tech -1

Duke +1

O/U 137.5

Betting Odds Analysis

The Red Raiders hit the board as 1-point neutral court favorites, and the number to beat hasn’t moved an inch ever since. Though Terrence Shannon Jr. and Co. has taken 52 percent of the bets and a whopping 80 percent of the money according to early wagering reports, linemakers have been remiss to move the line. That lets it be known that they’re either taking a position on Duke, or respected sharp money accounts have littered their monies upon both teams. Shockingly, this is the first near pick ‘em game the Red Raiders will have partaken in since 2018. They’re just 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four instances with the under cashing in each time and an average of 125 points scored. As for Duke, it’s won and covered the two times it went off the board a 1-point underdog, but the latest occurrence came way back in 2017; they dropped the previous five instances. With Tech’s defense likely to flex its muscles, the total is down a half-point from the opener of 138.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

While the Red Raiders have won four of their five postseason matches, the final outcomes have been less than desirable for their wagering supporters. Dating back to the final three games of the regular season in which they dropped two of three to Oklahoma State (L), K-State (W), and TCU (L), the team has managed just a pair of point spread covers through their last eight games. While no doubt impressive in the opening round pounding of Montana State, the 59-53 win and non-cover versus Notre Dame took a late game run just to come out on top. While an excessive amount of fouls hampered Texas Tech’s rhythm, a better showing was needed. If that effort is brought to the hardwood against Duke, they’ll be heading home early. After allowing the Irish to drain nine 3-point shots, look for Mark Adams to have his kids ready to lock down the perimeter versus the Dookies No. 37 ranked long range offense.

Duke Blue Devils

The Blue Devils have gotten the benefit of running up against two of the more piss poor defenses the Field of 64 had to offer. That won’t be the case when they take to the Chase Center floor to run with Texas Tech who are owners of the No. 1 ranked defensive efficiency at KenPom.com. Even after connecting on just 5-of-13 shots from beyond the perimeter against MSU, they were still able to put 85 points on the board. It was possible due to Sparty sending them to the line 21 times as well as allowing them anything they wanted in the paint. If the 3-ball isn’t dropping this time around against the nation’s No. 59 ranked perimeter defense, it’ll be tougher for Duke to put points on the board against the Red Raiders who rank No. 10 in points scored in front of the arc. The Blue Devils normally take excellent care of the basketball (No. 20), but their ball handlers will be tested by Tech who is tenth best at forcing miscues.

The Wager

The ACC was one of the worst power conferences in the country this season as evidenced by just three of its entrants surviving through the first weekend. The same can’t be said of the Big 12. While Baylor and TCU ultimately bowed out, it took overtime wins from both North Carolina and Arizona to send them home. I’ve watched a ton of Big 12 basketball this season being a diehard Kansas Jayhawks fan, and knew the league would perform well heading into the tourney. Heck, even Iowa State is still around! This is going to be a major step up in class for Paulo Banchero and company who are yet to run up against a defense as stingy and physical as that of the Red Raiders. I fully expect Adams to cook up a defensive game plan that suffocates the Dookies from the inside out, and don’t believe they have the shooters to make up for it. Look for Tech’s defense to shine and allow for the team to punch a ticket back into the Elite Eight.