Arkansas vs. Gonzaga NCAA Tournament Betting Odds and Prediction

Even though the No. 1 overall seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs have bankrupted their wagering supporters going back to the middle of February, college basketball bettors are backing them with confidence in their Sweet 16 showdown with the No. 4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks. Maybe it has to do with fighting back to overcome a game Memphis outfit. Maybe it has to do with how poorly the Hogs performed in NCAA tournament betting through their first two games against a pair of double-digit seeds in Vermont (No. 13) and New Mexico State (No. 12). DraftKings Sportsbook hasn’t been able to stop the influx of wagers on Mark Few’s kids regardless of moving the point spread north. I’m not buying it! As embarrassing the SEC’s performance in the dance has been, I fully expect the big dogs to put their best foot forward and give the Zags a fight till the bitter end. As such, I’m taking the points and will sprinkle some action on the Hogs moneyline as well.

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds

Arkansas +9

Gonzaga -9

O/U 154.5

Betting Odds Analysis

The Bulldogs initially opened as 8.5-point favorites with the O/U set at 155.5. Early betting has seen a majority of the action go the way of the Bulldogs with 52 percent of the bets and 62 percent of the money forcing a line move up to -9; some spots even clock in at -9.5. Make it a point to shop around for the best price on your preferred side. Arkansas only won two of the five times it went off the board dogged this season. It did however cover each of the last four times losing the two games by an average of just 2.5 points per game. Dropping an 81-72 decision to Baylor as 7.5-point dogs in the region finals a season ago should have the holdovers from that team ready to go. Since pounding USC in the region finals a season ago, Gonzaga has failed to cover each of its last three NCAA tourney matchups as decided favorites. The total has seen some reverse line movement with it down to 154.5 regardless of a majority of the bets and money surfacing on the over.

Arkansas Razorbacks

If not for shooting 25 free throws and converting 22 of them, the Hogs season would’ve likely come to an end against New Mexico State. Being successful from the charity stripe has however been a key to JD Notae and Co. ability to win way more games than they’ve lost to this point of the season. It’s better than 77 point per game scoring average has been buoyed by a near 75 percent success rate from the stripe (No. 70). On top of that, it gets to the line with frequency evidenced by its No. 15 ranked free throw rate. While the Zags do a great job limiting fouls themselves, remember a majority of their stats have been accrued against much lesser competition in the WCC. Georgia State got to the line 25 times, while Memphis had 20 attempts. Getting to the foul line will be crucial for Arkansas’ chances of pulling the upset.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

The West Coast Conference has and forever will be dominated by the Gonzaga Bulldogs for however much longer Mark Few decides to make his home in Spokane. The Bulldogs have predicated their success since his arrival by beating up on much lesser opposition. While the WCC had a few standouts that qualified for the Dance this season in St. Mary’s and San Francisco, neither made it to the Sweet 16. Gonzaga was lucky to escape an extremely athletic Memphis outfit last time out, and it’s going to get another major test early Thursday evening. That being said, Arkansas doesn’t possess a very deep roster which should have Gonzaga taking it to the Hogs immediately in hopes of getting their standouts into early foul trouble. Should it force Jaylin Williams to the pine early, it could open the doors for the Zags to cover this impost. If not, it’s going to be a gritty battle all the way through.

The Wager

While I have mad respect for what the Zags are able to do every passing season, I have my reservations with them every time I fill out a bracket. I ignored my perception of the team last season, and it cost me dearly in the finals after Baylor curb stomped them right from the opening tip. Call it sour grapes or whatever you want; I’m not sold on this team! I actually had UConn upsetting them in this spot in this year’s bracket, and was prepared to take whoever opposed them plus the points if it didn’t come to pass. Though it ended up being Arkansas instead, I’m still 100 percent sold on the Zags not getting out of the West Region in this year’s installment of the NCAA tournament. And yes, I’ll be backing their opponent next round as well – Gimme all the points!