Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Patriots vs. Broncos

Ugly swing and a miss with the Jaguars and the expectation both passing games thrived in the Sunday Night Football same game parlay. Had Jacksonville cashed in on any of its red zone appearances, the game likely would’ve played out much differently at Caesars Sportsbook with the Jags much more competitive than the 23-7 loss to the Ravens indicates. Regardless, we failed to cash on Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, and Odell Beckham Jr. but did cash a parlay leg with Zay Jones. We came so close to cashing huge parlays the previous two weeks and went up in flames last week. Here’s to coming through this Sunday night when the Broncos welcome the Patriots into the Mile High City – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

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It’s shocking to me that the NFL decided not to flex this tilt between the Pats and Broncos out of Sunday night’s primetime slot, but it is what it is. The game itself holds the lowest total of every Week 16 matchup with Denver heavily favored to win the game. The Broncos initially hit the board as 5.5-point favorites and the total lined 36. The number to beat has since swelled to -6.5 by way of Sean Payton’s troops taking in a decided 72 percent of the betting handle. As for the O/U, it’s down 1.5-points to 34.5 with the under getting bludgeoned with nearly 90 percent of the money. Evidently, the NFL betting market seems to believe Denver’s triumph will be of a lower scoring variety which comes with little surprise considering Russell Wilson and Co. have won four straight in front of the hometown faithful (3-1 ATS) with the under a field goal away from cashing in each game with 37.8 points scored on average.

This is an extremely important home tilt for the Broncos who at 7-7 overall find themselves owners of the No. 11 seed in the AFC playoffs pecking order with two winnable matchups still remaining on the docket against the Chargers and @Raiders. Lose this game, and they can all but kiss away any playoff hopes with it already two wins in back of the Browns while chasing the eight win Colts, Bengals, Texans, Bills and seven win Steelers. As inept the Patriots have been on the offensive side of the ball (No. 28) with it averaging a league-worst 13.3 points per game, I can’t help but think Denver’s defense rises to the occasion a week removed from getting raked over the coals by the Detroit Lions potent offensive attack. New England’s 13.5-point implied total is the lowest on the betting board for Week 16 at Caesars and I still don’t think they sniff it!

Denver still possesses the absolute worst run defense in the league in allowing 146.9 yards per game with that Week 3 pummeling in Miami still taking a toll. That being said, Vance Joseph’s unit has been on the up-and-up defending the run recently evidenced by only allowing short of 117 yards per game over the last three weeks (No. 16). While I don’t expect Denver to run away and hide in this one to force the Patriots to the air and abandon the run, I wouldn’t be against that occurring. Either way, I’m fading Ezekiel Elliott in this spot with the Broncos knowing full well he’ll be their most consistent option on the offensive side of the ball should New England keep this one close – I don’t think they will! That option will be taken out of the equation largely due to the offense’s proclivity towards turning the ball over regardless of whom the Pats march in under center.

The Broncos 24 takeaways clock in as the second-most in the league behind only the Jaguars and 49ers. Eleven of them have come by way of the interception with the unit failing to reel one in three of the last four weeks. Bailey Zappe owns a 4:4 TD/INT ratio to date and has thrown an errant pass in each of his last two starts against the Chiefs and Steelers. I firmly expect the streak to continue Sunday night. Though New England has been a brutal matchup for opposing ball carriers all season long with it ranked No. 2 against the run and allowing a league-best 3.1 yards per carry, I expect Javonte Williams to be working under a positive game script throughout. That should find him in a position to exceed his modest 55.5-yard rushing yards prop and likely put him in a position to fall into the end zone for only the fourth time this season – Let’s get this one!

Denver Broncos -6.5

Bailey Zappe Over 0.5 Interceptions

Ezekiel Elliott Under 59.5 Rushing Yards

Javonte Williams Over 55.5 Rushing Yards

Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown

Bet $100 to Win $1100 on this SNF Same Game Parlay at Caesars Sportsbook