Sunday, May 7 MLB Best Bets

We busted out the brooms with our MLB Best Bets at PointsBet Sportsbook for the third straight week this past Sunday! Josiah Gray and the Nats kicked off the day by coming through as moderate sized home dogs to avoid the series sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirate. Then Chris Sale registered his second quality start and second win by spinning 6+ innings of 1 ER ball to help lead the Red Sox to the series clinching win over the Guardians. Mason Miller got bumped in the series finale against the Reds preventing us from taking advantage of a juice spot to cash another ticket. Let’s see if we can close this week out with another broom job – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 46-40-3 ($545)

LW: 12-10 ($213)

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves

I can’t help but think the Orioles will be chomping at the bit to get back into the box for Sunday’s finale after being forced to deal with Max Fried and Spencer Strider in the first two games of this series with the Braves. Only the Dodgers and Padres possess better walk rates than that of Baltimore who will get the pleasure of running up against veteran RHP Charlie Morton and his 3.9 BB/9 which is the main reason only half of his six starts have been of quality when taking into account he’s the owner of a 3.38 ERA and 10.7 K/9.

On top of all that, Baltimore has proven to be one of the better hitting teams in the league with it ranked No. 7 in OPS while launching 38 bombs into the cheap seats (No. 11). Adding to the team’s ability to put runs on the board has been its prowess on the base paths where it’s swiped the third most bases in the game with Cedric Mullins and Jorge Mateo blazing a trail with 111 stolen bases each. While Sean Murphy has done a great job hitting bombs (8), he hasn’t been very good throwing out base stealers only doing so four of 18 times (22%). Though first pitch is annoyingly early, this is a spot the O’s can flex their offensive muscles and I expect them to do just that.

BET ORIOLES TEAM TOTAL OVER

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

So we faded Roansy Contreras in his start against the Rays earlier this week and lived to tell about it. We bet the under of his 16.5 pitching outs prop and cashed the ticket in by the skin of our teeth after the right-hander logged 16 and was pulled immediately after serving up a home run to the second batter faced in the bottom of the sixth. While the final stat line was far from pretty with the second-year hurler allowing four earned runs and walks, I still came away impressed with the way he handled himself against a Tampa Bay offense that’s done nothing but rip the cover off the ball. Only giving up six total hits to Randy Arozarena and co. right now is quite the feat!

Another stiff test will come in the form of the Blue Jays in Sunday’s finale, but I’m going to throw caution to the wind and expect his slider to give Vlad Guerrero Jr. and co. major headaches. As a team, Toronto has been horrendous versus the pitch type with only two regulars sporting positive run values per Baseball Savant. If it’s not biting, we’re likely dead in the water with the BJs readily able to blast his most heavily used secondary pitch which is a pretty pedestrian 4-seamer. With the Buccos ranked fourth in OPS against LHP while averaging 6.2 runs per game and Yusei Kikuchi serving up at least 5 ER in two of his three made road starts, Pittsburgh offering up a plus-money return is a spot I won’t be able to pass on.

BET THE PIRATES

Oakland A’s vs. Kansas City Royals

There aren’t many good stories coming out of Oakland right now with the A’s managing just six wins through their first 32 games. At 20-games under the breakeven point, No team has cost MLB bettors more money than that of the Oakland A’s (-$1558). However, the franchise looks to have a good one at its disposal in the form of rookie right-hander Mason Miller who clocks in as the only starters on the staff with a sub 5.00 ERA. While the sample size has been small with just three starts under the kid’s belt, he’s shown me enough to believe he can shine in his second start of the week running up against a Royals batting lineup No. 27 in OPS with a 24.5 percent K rate that ranks dead last in walk rate.

We backed the over of the rookie’s 5.5 K prop earlier in the week at home against Seattle. Surprisingly, Mark Kotsay trotted him out for the seventh with the A’s nursing a 1-0 lead and the righty came through for us registering a pair of Ks. His night ended with seven shutout innings in which he didn’t allow a walk and fanned six. While the four free passes were bothersome, the kid dazzled and I think he’ll be in line to secure his first win of the season in this spot. While Rookie of the Year Awards very seldom go to pitchers, I think Miller has a great shot. Should he continue to be the only shining light of the franchise, you’ll definitely want shares of him in the futures odds portfolio. PointsBet is currently offering him up at 20-1!

BET THE A’s

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