NFL Week 3 Thursday Picks, Predictions, and Odds
September 18, 2023
College Football Week 4 Saturday Picks, Predictions, and Odds
September 19, 2023
It was a pretty good weekend for most sportsbooks even though 12 of 14 NFL games ended up going over the football betting total between Thursday Night Football and Sunday’s action. There were a few big losers along the way, but the team that everyone has loved to back in college football through the first month of the season failed to cover any number and all teasers.
The Colorado Buffaloes nearly lost outright as a three-touchdown favorite per the CFB betting odds on Saturday night. ESPN and FOX both went to Boulder to cover Deion Sanders and the Buffs, and the game saw more action than any other college football game on Saturday. We saw the betting line move from 20 to almost 24 over the course of the week, but the Buffs fell behind in the first quarter and needed to go 98 yards in the last two minutes to force overtime. A Colorado State win would have been incredible for the books considering the parlay money on Colorado moneyline, yet the Buffs were able to eek out a win in double overtime to keep their unbeaten season alive. They are heavy underdogs against Oregon next week, and the early money has moved against Colorado for once.
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BIGGEST WINNERS OF THE WEEK
SOUTH FLORIDA VS. ALABAMA
I was puzzled by this line and the action on this game all week. South Florida opened as a 31-point underdog per the college football betting line against Alabama, and that line only grew over the course of the week. Sharps and the general public alike expected the Tide to “get right” against a USF team that has only beaten one FBS opponent since 2019, but its clear that Nick Saban is receiving way too much credit. The Crimson Tide do not have a good offensive line and have a quarterback carousel on their hands, so they finished with just 15 first downs against USF.
That allowed the Bulls to cover the number the whole way. Alabama didn’t find the end zone for the first time until late in the third quarter and the score in this game was 10-3 until the very end when the Crimson Tide punched in a touchdown with 30 seconds left to make the final more respectable. Needless to say, the Bulls covered every number even though they only managed to score a field goal as Alabama was anemic on offense.
ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS
The most popular bet in the NFL this week was the New York Giants. Many pundits called for the Arizona Cardinals to be the worst team in the league this season, but the Cards should have beat them on Sunday. Arizona took a 20-0 lead into halftime and led by two touchdowns at the start of the fourth quarter before falling apart and losing by three points. However, they did cover the four-point spread as most bettors predicted they would bounce back after a dreadful performance against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.
BIGGEST LOSERS OF THE WEEK
FLORIDA GATORS VS. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
While some sportsbooks won money on this game, most sportsbooks lost money on this SEC rivalry game as sharps jumped all over Florida at +7 or higher early in the week. The Vols drew first blood, but they didn’t find the end zone again until midway through the fourth quarter and ended up falling 29-16. That allowed bettors to collect on the Florida spread and moneyline amounts, and action on the Vols didn’t make up for the losses with the Gators.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Following their loss to Detroit in the season opener, you could tell that Kansas City would be a popular bet in Week 2. The Chiefs were favored by 3 to 3.5 points on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the public poured in money on Kansas City at that price. It looked like this result might go in favor of the sportsbooks since the Chiefs turned the ball over three times in the first 20 minutes, but the Jaguars were listless on offense and managed just three field goals.
