NFL Week 3 Thursday Picks, Predictions, and Odds

After swinging and missing with the Kansas City Chiefs in our first Thursday Night Football play, we scored a winner with the Minnesota Vikings last week. Kirk Cousins was sharp and continually kept the Vikes in the game, and Minnesota was able to score late in the fourth quarter to secure the cover. Cousins completed 31 of 44 passes for 364 yards and four touchdowns, and that won’t help answer any questions about Philadelphia’s defense in the near future.

Minnesota was arguably the luckiest team in the NFL last season, but the New York Giants may have been a close second given how they have looked through the first two weeks of this season. The Giants were blown out 40-0 by the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 1, and they had to overcome a 20-0 halftime deficit to beat the lowly Arizona Cardinals this past week. That’s why the Giants are currently a double-digit underdog per the NFL betting odds on the road against the San Francisco 49ers this Thursday night.

NFL Week 3 Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook

Plays: Under 45

The New York Giants are currently the only team in the NFC East with a loss to their name, and they should be two games behind every other squad in the division at this point. The Giants have been incredibly disappointing through two weeks, and they didn’t score their first points of the season until over 91 minutes of football had been played. To make matters worse, they will almost certainly be without standout running back Saquon Barkley this week after he injured his ankle on Sunday. Barkley will undergo an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of the injury, but its highly unlikely that he plays on three days’ rest against a physical San Francisco defense.

That is not good news for Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense. New York relies on the ground game and the combination of Jones and Barkley to run the ball in order to set things up on play action in the passing attack. Jones had an awful performance against Dallas in Week 1, and it almost took him too long to get going against a bad Arizona defense this past Sunday. Now, Danny Dimes will need to be more of a threat through the air as the running back situation behind Barkley is not good.

San Francisco’s defense should have a field day on Thursday night. The Niners had a bit of a letdown against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2 after a fantastic performance in Week 1, but we are likely to see a much better effort against a team without its best weapon on a short week. The second level of this defense is outstanding, and Talanoa Hufanga will likely sign a big contract this offseason after earning First Team All-Pro honors in his second season.

Everyone knows what Kyle Shanahan wants to do on offense, but stopping it is another matter entirely. San Francisco has a very run-heavy offense, and Christian McCaffrey is the perfect running back in this scheme. Run CMC is averaging almost 6.4 YPC through the first two games of the season, so he could be a 2,000-yard rusher if he stays healthy. That success in the ground game tends to make things easy for Brock Purdy who is simply asked to play mistake-free football.

There will be a lot of teaser and parlay action on the San Francisco 49ers given the injury to Barkley. However, when it comes to making a straight bet, I will take the Under rather than lay the points with the Niners. The numbers this week are a little high after the Over hit in 12 of 14 games prior to Monday Night Football in Week 2. Yes, San Francisco has scored 30 points in each of its first two games, but this is not a high-octane offense. On a short week, Shanahan and the Niners will be content to just run the ball often and grind out a win. I expect the football betting odds to fall below 45 prior to kickoff, so grab this juicy number while it’s still available.