North Carolina vs. Baylor NCAA Tournament Betting Odds and Prediction

The East Region No. 1 seed Baylor Bears sure had a spring in their step Thursday afternoon when it took the wood to Norfolk State to punch a ticket into the second round of the NCAA tournament. Think it had anything to do with the calculated decision to lay down in the Big 12 tournament? Whether it did or it didn’t, the task at hand will be much tougher Saturday afternoon when it runs up against the No. 8 seed North Carolina Tar Heels who also had themselves a good ‘ol time beating up on the Marquette Golden Eagles in the opening round. SugarHouse Sportsbook has Scott Drew’s kids installed multiple possession favorites to rattle off an eighth straight Big Dance win, but it won’t be easy running up against a UNC squad also coming off a statement win. Though North Carolina closed the season out on a high by beating up on questionable opposition in the down ACC, I still think they have what it takes both mentally and physically to give the region’s top seed a major run for its money. As such, I’ll be taking the points and throwing some beer money on the Heels to win this one outright.

BetRivers Sportsbook Betting Odds

North Carolina +5.5

Baylor -5.5

O/U 149

Betting Odds Analysis

This matchup hit the board with Baylor lined 5.5-point favorites and the total set at 150. With this tilt taking place close to the Bears home in Waco, that offering checks out a bit light per the Pomeroy Ratings who have the reigning champs in the 7-8 point range dependent upon the number of points associated with their in-state court advantage. Even so, the number to beat has held firm since first hitting the board, though heavier juice is currently attached to Baylor’s side of the impost. I’ll take it considering the Heels are on a heater right now having gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. As readily able both teams were at denting the scoreboard in their respective openers, it comes as a bit of a surprise to see the total bet down a full point to 149. North Carolina’s played to high scorers in four of its last six, while Baylor’s cashed over tickets in three of its last five.

North Carolina Tar Heels

The 1-2 punch of Brady Manek and Caleb Love shined in a big time way against Marquette with the former going for a game-high 28 points on 10 of 15 shooting to go along with 11 rebounds, and the latter chipping in with 23 points by way of connecting on 6-of-13 long range shots. Armando Bacot also had another solid showing with 17 points and 10 rebounds to log a double-double in all three of the Heels’ postseason games. The trio will again need to be on point early Saturday afternoon when they run up against a Baylor defense that does a fantastic job of limiting opponent’s success from beyond the arc (No. 18). North Carolina’s ability to light it up from deep has seemingly turned the season around in recent weeks. But with injuries down low, Baylor is susceptible in the paint (No. 150) and that’s where Bacot and Co. will need to get the job done in order to hang if not pull the upset.

Baylor Bears

The defending champs wasted little time disposing of a much lesser opponent to get its starters out of the game early and turn their attention towards the next victim. But before Scott Drew emptied the bench, Matthew Mayer put forth a standout performance by connecting on 8 of 12 shots for a team-high 22 points and six rebounds. Four other players would register double-digits in scoring with the offense shooting 57 percent overall and converting 11 of 27 3-point attempts. At the other end of the floor, the defense limited the Spartans to a 32 percent showing from the field, outrebounded them 33-24, and forced 12 turnovers. The only blemish proved to be another wretched shooting performance from the charity stripe (12 of 21) which breeds cause for concern. The Bears are wretched free throw shooters (No. 258), and their inability to convert them will come back to bite them as soon as this game against the Heels.

The Wager

All the analytical sites predict Baylor winning and covering this tilt to punch a ticket into the Sweet 16. Regardless, I’m digging the way North Carolina is playing right now enough to the point of taking a stab with them to see if they can’t make the game a wee bit more interesting than the algorithms expect. Manek and Love have been playing out of their minds recently, and Bacot is a force to be reckoned with; so long as he cherishes the five whistles granted and doesn’t get into early foul trouble. Save for Flo Thamba – who is foul prone himself – the Bears don’t have another capable body on the roster to prevent him from going HAM down low. If they decide to clamp down and he finds wide open shooters along the perimeter, UNC can make a game of this provided its downtown flames haven’t been extinguished. These teams match up well with one another. Turnovers and fouls will ultimately decide the outcome. I’m comfortable enough with a couple possessions in my back pocket to take a stab with this rabid dawg!