Montana State vs. Texas Tech NCAA Tournament Betting Odds and Prediction

Friday’s early afternoon slate looks ripe for a number of beat downs to occur. The 14/3 matchup between Big Sky rep Montana State and the Texas Tech Red Raiders is one I have circled as having a high probability of playing out that way. Though the Bobcats cruised to the regular season conference title and followed it up with a ticket to the dance by winning the tourney, this is an enormous step up in class than what Xavier Bishop and his mates have run up against. While Texas Tech is prone to going on major scoring droughts which allows for them to be beaten further into the NCAA tournament, this just isn’t one of those spots. Mark Adams’ no-middle defense is going to dominate right from the opening tip and make it very hard for their overmatched opponent to do much of anything on the scoreboard. I have no issue backing the Red Raiders on the point spread at SugarHouse Sportsbook, but it’s their opponent’s team total that I believe offers up the most value from a wagering standpoint. The Red Raiders path to the Final Four is there for the taking, and I fully believe they kick the trek off with a sterling defensive performance!

BetRivers Sportsbook Betting Odds

Montana State +15

Texas Tech -15

O/U 132.5

Betting Odds Analysis

This matchup hit the board with Texas Tech lined as 15.5-point favorites and the total lined at 130. As has been the case with most of the seeds in the 13-15 range, the Bobcats have taken the early action forcing linemakers to shorten their offering on the favorite. Early wager reports find 81 percent of the bets and 71 percent of the money going the way of the No. 13 seed. Even so, the point spread is down just a half-point which lets it be known they’re not at all worried being bloated with Bobcats money. The Pomeroy Ratings expect a 20+ point win here for No. 9 Texas Tech against Montana State who clocks in at No. 125. It’s highly likely the Bobcats No. 310 schedule strength is playing a large role in such a decisive spread. For comparison’s sake, the Red Raiders ran up against the nation’s 15^th toughest schedule. On top of all that, Montana State battled a slate of opposing defenses ranked No. 351 in the country. Texas Tech rates out No. 1 in the land – There Will Be Blood!

Montana State Bobcats

A quick glance at the Bobcats stat line paints the picture of a team that shoots the ball well from beyond the arc (No. 25), close to the rim (No. 52), and from the charity stripe (No. 63). It also does a better than average job of cleaning the defensive glass (No. 23) which limits opponents from getting multiple looks at the basket per possession. In Bishop (15.7 PPG), Amin Adamu (12.3 PPG), and Great Osobor (10.0 PPG), the Bobcats possess a pretty solid trio of scoring production. Each also averages better than 4.0 rebounds per game. That being said, the stats were accrued against a laughable schedule. The lone opponent faced currently in the Field of 64 is South Dakota State, and Montana State got plastered in that game 91-74 as near 10-point road dogs.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

What a strange year it’s been for the Red Raiders. Chris Beard shockingly bolting for Austin had Lubbock up in arms about their former coach’s decision. Nobody gave the Red Raiders much of a shot at competing for the Big 12 title let alone get back to the NCAA tournament with Mark Adams at the controls. Not only did they compete with both Kansas and Baylor for league bragging rights, but they ultimately did punch a ticket into the dance and did so as a No. 3 seed. As such, it carries the third shortest odds to win the West Region at Sugarhouse and clocks in as a 25-1 dog to win the whole thing after getting as high as 47-1 after getting handled by Gonzaga on a neutral court in mid-December. While the team’s issues on the road are a concern (5-7 SU), that definitively won’t be a hindrance for Terrence Shannon Jr. and his mates in this spot.

The Wager

Montana State ranks amongst the top-25 in the nation at pulling in defensive caroms. That ranking will be put to the test against the relentless offensive rebounding prowess of the Red Raiders who rank No. 37 overall. The Bobcats will attempt to clog up the paint and look to force Tech into taking an inordinate amount of shots from beyond the arc. While that could pay off, it’ll ultimately be up to the team’s ability to reel in the misses with regularity. I don’t foresee it happening. Texas Tech is going to get multiple looks at the basket while at the same time force the Bobcats to defend every second of those possessions. Fatigue will ultimately set in, and the shots won’t drop. Like an Anaconda squeezing the life out of its prey, look for the Red Raiders to take a calculated approach towards advancing into the next round by turning this into one of the most boring games of the opening round. In the process, Montana State will come woefully short of surpassing their 58.5-point team total.