The New Orleans Saints were a tough nut to crack for me entering last season, and it showed come the season’s end with the team being one of the few that cost me in the win total odds market. Not to brag, but I did very well wagering on team totals at PointsBet Sportsbook last season. The defense proved to be good enough to help lead the team to nine wins last season, but injuries ended up costing the offense immensely which in turn saw it score the second-fewest points in the NFC South behind Tampa Bay and fifth fewest in the NFC (330). Most of the issues stemmed from inconsistency at the quarterback position either due to injury or poor play. Upper management looked to rectify that situation in the offseason by plucking Derek Carr from the Raiders with the hope he’s the answer for a unit that has some explosive pieces to it. Should the offense excel and allow the Saints to take advantage of one of if not the easiest NFL schedules I’ve ever seen from opponents faced to scheduling scenarios, New Orleans will be in a position to punch a ticket to the playoffs and possibly runaway and hide with the division title in tow.

New Orleans Saints: Will Dennis Allen Finally Overlook a Winner?

The New Orleans Saints enter the 2023-24 NFL betting season with high hopes and a revamped roster. One of the most significant changes for the Saints is the arrival of veteran quarterback Derek Carr. Carr, who previously played under head coach Dennis Allen, is expected to bring stability and leadership to the Saints’ offense. With an impressive lineup of skill players, including RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave, WR Michael Thomas, the newly acquired RB Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill, the offense has the potential to reach elite levels under the guidance of longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael.

Defensively, the Saints boast a strong unit led by NFL All-Pro DE Cam Jordan. With decorated players in all three defensive levels, including Marshon Lattimore, Demario Davis, and Tyrann Mathieu, the Saints’ defense is poised to be a formidable force once again. Last season, they showcased their prowess by allowing an average of just 20.3 points per game, ranking them ninth in the league. Notably, the Saints’ defense tied for the third-fewest passing touchdowns allowed, demonstrating their ability to stifle opposing offenses. Dennis Allen has long been known to be a defensive guru, but his in-game decisions and questionable play-calling left much to be desired in his first go-round as the Saints’ shot caller. Should he wise up in year two, it’ll be awfully tough to keep NFC South bragging rights out of N’awlens.

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New Orleans Saints Season Wins Total: 9.5

The Saints’ schedule for the 2023 season presents both opportunities and challenges. According to Pro Football Focus, the NFC South is considered the weakest division in the league. The lack of quarterbacking continuity among division rivals such as the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers gives the Saints a favorable chance to compete for the NFC South title. PointsBet Sportsbook has them listed as favorites to win the division at +120 odds. They also possess the highest win total in the division (9.5) by a full game. The Saints’ toughest games going into the regular season are expected to be against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7 and the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10. Based on their opponents’ combined win totals entering the year, New Orleans possesses the easiest schedule in the NFL per Sharp Football Analysis.

Case for the Over

There are several factors that make a compelling case for the New Orleans Saints to exceed their projected win total of 9.5 games. Firstly, the NFC South is considered the weakest division in the league, providing the Saints with an advantage over their divisional rivals. With their upgraded roster and a veteran quarterback now under center, the Saints have the potential to dominate within the division and secure a number of impactful wins.

Furthermore, the Saints’ schedule is stacked with opponents who struggled the prior season. Power rankings find nine of their opponents ranked amongst the bottom third of the league, indicating a favorable opportunity for the Saints to rack up wins. Additionally, they’re expected to run up against an extremely limited cast of quarterbacks that also rank out in the bottom third of the league or are rookies. Led by Cam Jordan and supported by a talented secondary, the defense has the ability to stifle opposing offenses and keep games within reach for the Saints’ offense to capitalize on and win.

Case for the Under

While there are many reasons to be optimistic about the New Orleans Saints’ chances of exceeding their projected win total, there are also factors that could lead them to cashing under tickets for the second straight year. One potential concern is the Saints’ performance on the road. Last season, they only managed three wins away from the bayou and will be forced to play nine games away from home this season. Additionally, the Saints’ ability to create turnovers could be a determining factor in their success. Last season, they ranked 32nd in EPA gained from defensive turnovers and tied for last in the NFL in fourth-quarter turnovers created. The road woes and need for increased turnover creation could hinder their ability to surpass expectations.

New Orleans Saints Football Schedule

Week 1: vs. Titans

Week 2: at Panthers (MNF)

Week 3: at Packers

Week 4: vs. Buccaneers

Week 5: at Patriots

Week 6: at Texans

Week 7: vs. Jaguars (TNF)

Week 8: at Colts

Week 9: vs. Bears

Week 10: at Vikings

Week 11: Bye Week

Week 12: at Falcons

Week 13: vs. Lions

Week 14: vs. Panthers

Week 15: vs. Giants

Week 16: at Rams (TNF)

Week 17: at Buccaneers

Week 18: vs. Falcons

New Orleans Saints Season Win Total Analysis

The New Orleans Saints enter the 2023 NFL season with high hopes and a projected win total of 9.5 games. With the arrival of veteran quarterback Derek Carr and a strong defensive unit, the Saints are poised for success. Their schedule, which is considered one of the easiest in the league, provides ample opportunities for wins. It’s tough not to come away impressed with how the Saints look on paper heading into another football betting campaign. Inconsistency at the most important position on the field ultimately cost the Saints a number of wins a season ago. It also didn’t help that the coaching staff made a number of bad calls to cost the team some extra wins. All said, I can’t help but think New Orleans rectifies those situations in 2023-24 and finds itself a legit contender to not only win the NFC South, but contend for representing the NFC in Super Bowl LVIII. With the right combination of factors, the New Orleans Saints have the potential to exceed expectations and make a deep run in the postseason all the while zooming past their season wins total with relative ease.

New Orleans Saints Season Win Total Prediction: Over 9.5 +115

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