Like many an NFL bettor, I completely misread the Atlanta Falcons heading into the 2022-23 NFL betting season. I expected no more than four total wins to be accrued, but the team went on to drastically exceed expectations by marching out one of the best rushing attacks the league had to offer mostly due to the offensive line coming out of nowhere to become a force. The defense still stunk out loud ranking in the bottom third of the league in the most pertinent of stat categories, but it didn’t prevent Atlanta from snapping a 4-year trend of failing to surpass its win total odds at PointsBet Sportsbook. With Desmond Ridder now the anointed QB1 heading into the regular season and the addition of stud RB Bijan Robinson to the offensive huddle, expectations are much higher for the team entering year three of the Arthur Smith regime.

Atlanta Falcons: Make Running Backs Great Again!

The Atlanta Falcons churned out a very surprising 2022-23 campaign, finishing with a 7-10 record that saw the team log a 9-8 record against the closing NFL odds. While they fell short of making the playoffs and matched the prior year’s overall win record, they showed significant improvement compared to the previous year. The Falcons’ offense displayed a unique style of play, relying heavily on the running game with an average of 32.9 attempts per game (No. 2). They finished third in the league in rushing, but their passing game ranked No. 31. QB Marcus Mariota started the majority of the season but was eventually replaced by Desmond Ridder the last month of the season.

Offensively, Atlanta focused on adding depth to the wide receiver corps by adding role players Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller to join Drake London and Kyle Pitts in hopes of raising the passing attack from the ashes. Desmond Ridder will be the QB1 with former Washington Commander Taylor Heinicke his backup. Though RB Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson helped the offense trot out one of the best rushing attacks onto the gridiron every passing week, upper management felt the need to build upon its strength in the backfield by adding Robinson. I came away extremely disappointed with the decision not only because it cost me to fade the running back position in the opening round of the draft, but also because there were major difference makers available at the wide receiver position at No. 8. He can go on to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award as expected, and I’ll still call out the front office’s decision to make that move!

Defensively, the Falcons struggled against the pass, ranking last in pass EPA allowed versus expected while serving up nearly 232.0 yards per game (No. 25). Despite facing a relatively weak cast of opposing quarterbacks, their pass rush was non-existent, ranking last in pressure rate. Overall, the Falcons’ defense had room for improvement, and the upcoming offseason presented an opportunity to address these weaknesses with S Jessie Bates III, DT David Onyemata, and LB Kaden Ellis expected to make immediate impacts. While relying on older veterans in free agency is a risky proposition, the Falcons’ defense can only improve from last season’s horrific outputs.

Bet the Atlanta Falcons Season Wins Total at PointsBet Sportsbook

Atlanta Falcons Season Wins Total: 8.5

The Atlanta Falcons’ season win total odds for the 2023 season is set at 8.5 with heavier -140 juice attached to the high side of the impost. Their schedule for 2023-24 is projected to be one of the easiest in the league per Sharp Football Analysis. They’re set to square off against six of the bottom five teams (when going by win totals), tied with the San Francisco 49ers for the most in the NFL. Additionally, they will not face any teams ranked inside the top five. This favorable schedule provides the Falcons with an opportunity to compete in most of their games and potentially exceed expectations for the second straight year.

Case for the Over

There are several factors that support the case for the Falcons surpassing their listed win total of 8.5 games. Firstly, the Falcons’ offense, under the guidance of head coach Arthur Smith, has shown the ability to effectively run the ball. They have a strong offensive line, ranked top 5 overall by the FTN Network, and talented running backs in their arsenal. If their running game remains dominant, it can help them dominate time of possession and close games out effectively. Another factor working in favor of the Falcons is their relatively easy schedule. Facing six of the bottom five teams in the league provides an opportunity for the Falcons to secure victories and build momentum throughout the season. Lastly, the Falcons’ defense, although it struggled last season, has made significant offseason acquisitions to address their weaknesses. The addition of key players in free agency and trade, coupled with the change in defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen replacing Dean Pees, bodes well for defensive improvement.

Case for the Under

While there are reasons to be optimistic about the Atlanta Falcons’ chances of surpassing their win total, there are also potential obstacles that could lead to them falling short. One key factor is the uncertainty at the quarterback position. Desmond Ridder, who took over as the starter towards the end of last season, didn’t show significant improvement and finished 40th in EPA. If Ridder fails to develop into a reliable starting quarterback, it could significantly impact the Falcons’ ability to win games. Additionally, the Falcons’ reliance on the run game, while effective, raises questions about their ability to come from behind in close games. If they face deficits early on, it could put pressure on their passing game, which ranked amongst the worst in the game last season. If the Falcons’ offense becomes one-dimensional and predictable, it could make it easier for opponents to exploit their weaknesses and limit their scoring opportunities. Lastly, last year’s stop unit struggled against opposing pass attacks; combined with a weak schedule of opposing quarterbacks, it raises concerns about their ability to defend against more formidable passing attacks.

Atlanta Falcons Schedule

Week 1: vs. Panthers

Week 2: vs. Packers

Week 3: at Lions

Week 4: vs. Jaguars

Week 5: vs. Texans

Week 6: vs. Commanders

Week 7: at Buccaneers

Week 8: at Titans

Week 9: vs. Vikings

Week 10: at Cardinals

Week 11: Bye Week

Week 12: vs. Saints

Week 13: at Jets

Week 14: vs. Buccaneers

Week 15: at Panthers

Week 16: vs. Colts

Week 17: at Bears

Week 18: at Saints

Atlanta Falcons Season Win Total Analysis

Despite the potential challenges, the Falcons have a favorable schedule and a strong running game that can help them exceed expectations. Their defensive upgrades also provide optimism for improved performance. With the potential for improvement within a relatively weak division, the Falcons have a realistic chance of winning the NFC South. While the Falcons face an uphill battle in reaching the Super Bowl, their favorable schedule and potential improvements make them an intriguing dark horse to throw a beer money flier on at a +5500 ROI over at PointsBet. The Falcons enter the 2023 NFL betting season with a renewed sense of purpose and determination. While their success will depend on various factors, including the development of their quarterback and the performance of the defense, NFL bettors have several reasons to be optimistic of the franchise taking another step forward. With a favorable schedule and potential improvements in key areas, they have the potential to exceed expectations and make a push for a division title that could result with them making some noise in the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons Season Win Total Prediction: Over 8.5 -140

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