Monday, May 1 MLB Best Bets

My MLB Best Bets sweep streak came to a halt last Monday night at BetRivers Sportsbook after splitting both recommendations and my position on the Twins wiped out due to Joe Ryan being pushed back to Tuesday. The night started off on a high after Nick Lodolo failed to exceed his 7.5 K prop after only registering six against the Texas Rangers. The profit from that ticket cash was however wiped out later in the night after the St. Louis Cardinals allowed Alex Cobb to throw a complete game shutout against them. Let’s see if we can’t get back to kicking butt and taking names to kick off the week with another installment of best bets for tonight’s abbreviated slate – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 34-30-3 ($332)

LW: 10-7-1 ($115)

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Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals

Overall, Chicago has been one of the tougher offense’s to set down via the strikeout with it the owner of a 23.1 percent K rate. However, that percentage jumps up to 27.0 percent when opposed by a left-hander regardless of the fact that David Ross’ troops have raked southpaws for 6.8 runs per game and won six of the eight instances. Mackenzie Gore was sent to Washington for Juan Soto at the trade deadline last season. It proved to be a wise move with the third pick in the 2017 MLB Draft impressing in his first full season as a Nat. He enters his sixth start 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 11.7 K/9. He’s in line to tally another lofty strikeout total in this one with the Cubs struggling to hit some of his best offerings.

While Chicago has raked the 4-seamer with five regulars in the batting order producing solid run values against the pitch per Baseball Savant, Gore’s is one I think they struggle with as he elevates it with repeated success. The story is much different for the Cubs against the slider and curve, and those are Gore’s secondary pitch types he most utilizes – also with success. The 24-year old has seen his K prop hit the board 5.5 and 6.5 in his two most recent starts, and he managed to clear both numbers. I reckon we see a 6.5 in this one with Gore going for at least 6 K in all five starts and combining for 17 over his last two. He tossed five innings of 3 ER ball at the Cubs last season yet still managed 6 K. The kid’s stuff is electric and the coaching staff is no longer treating him with kid gloves in allowing him to throw 103 and 101 pitches in his last two turns. He’ll fly past this impost should he get into that neighborhood a third straight time!

BET OVER MACKENZIE GORE’S K PROP

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox

Let’s all rejoice as we get to enjoy another Fade Corey Kluber Day! It always bothers me when athletes hang on for too long which clouds the memory of what they once were. At one point in time, Kluber was the staff ace for the Cleveland Indians when they went to the World Series. That was in 2016. It’s now 2023 – at least that’s what my watch says. With that, Kluber is way past his prime and hanging on by a thread. Don’t believe me? Then let the stats speak for themselves. The righty enters his sixth start 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He’s served up 24 hits (7 HR) in 24 innings of work and is allowing 3.0 walks per nine innings. In Fenway, Kluber has been peppered for a .256 batting average against and owns a 10:7 K/BB ratio.

He ran up against Vlad Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays once last season and got tagged for seven hits and 5 ER while walking a pair and only registered one strike out through three measly innings. Toronto has won 12 of its 18 played games against RHP and averaged 4.8 runs per game in those contests. They’ve ripped the cover off the ball against the curve, sinker, and changeup. If Kluber’s cutter isn’t cutting it, the veteran will be headed to the showers early. This position is all about Toronto’s bats against the Red Sox’ washed veteran, but it doesn’t hurt that Jose Berrios just churned out consecutive seven inning showings against the Astros and White Sox and only conceded seven hits and 2 ER while racking up a gaudy 12:2 K/BB ratio.

BET THE BLUE JAYS

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