We scored back-to-back sweeps with our MLB Best Bets over at BetRivers Sportsbook to kick off the week with a bang! While not nearly as dominant as in prior starts, Jesus Luzardo kept the Marlins in the game long enough to allow for the offense to pull off the comeback win late. We cashed in with ease on the first five innings under in St. Louis where both Merrill Kelly and Jack Flaherty were tremendous early on. Closing it all out was a carefree waltz back to the ticket window to cash in a no sweat winner on the Cubs who smashed the A’s 10-1 in the series opener as short road chalk. Let’s mimic that feat with another batch of best bets - SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 24-23-2 ($217)
LW: 12-12-2 (-$55)
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Texas Rangers vs. Cincinnati Reds
We snagged a piece of Nick Lodolo in his home start against the Phillies and he hooked us up by tossing five innings of 2 ER ball with 6 K. That was followed up with a catastrophic outing against the Rays who peppered him for 12 hits (3 HR) and 8 ER through only 4.2 innings – his shortest stint of 2023. I tend to think another rough go of it will be in store for him in Monday’s series opener against a Texas Rangers outfit that invades the ‘Natti atop the AL West standings.
Though Texas hasn’t taken on the toughest of opposition to attain its 12-6 record with multiple series already played against the horrendous Kansas City Royals as well as one against the slow starting Phillies, the ‘Gers sport a pretty decent offense that ranks above average in the most pertinent of stat categories. Most importantly, it’s proven to have a fantastic batting eye versus LHP only striking out 21 percent of the time. With Lodolo the owner of a 12.9 K/9 through four starts, linemakers have inflated his K prop releasing it in the 7.5 range his last two starts. He failed to eclipse it both times. With Texas proving to be readily able to tee off on 4-seamers and curves, I think he comes up short a third straight time!
BET UNDER NICK LODOLO’S K PROP
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan hooked us up in his last start in Beantown by hurling six innings of 3 ER ball at the Red Sox to earn his fourth win of the season. I think he would’ve been much more dominant had his offense not given him seven runs to work with early on. Regardless, Ryan is an ace in my book and I’ll be looking to back him in this rematch with Jhony Brito much like I did when he squared off against the youngster back on April 13 in the Bronx where he spun seven dominant innings of 1 ER ball to go along with a season-high 10 strikeouts.
Once able to transform either his splitter or slider into a dominant second offering, Ryan will be competing for AL Cy Young Awards. Still, his fastball produced 10 whiffs through 58 offerings against a New York lineup that’s battered fast balls to date. He even had his splitter and slider doing work the first time around. As for his opponent, Brito was tagged by the Twinkies’ bats for six hits (1 HR) and 7 ER and failed to make it out of the first inning. While I expect him to be better in this shot at redemption, it still won’t be enough. Ryan is Minnesota’s ace and he’ll move to 2-0 against the Pinstripes when this one’s said and done.
BET THE TWINS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
The Redbirds have been one of the tougher teams to gauge through the first three weeks of the MLB betting season. Sitting 8-11 overall and down over $500 for baseball bettors, I still believe it to only be a matter of time until the team starts to figure it out. Most of its deficit has been accrued at home where its won just five of 13 played games, but the team checks in 3-3 playing away from Busch Stadium. Since getting out to a solid start in his first full season in the National League, Jordan Montgomery has taken losses in each of his last two starts after getting ripped for 16 hits (1 HR) and 9 ER by the Pirates and D’backs.
This however will be his first road start and his only one to date saw him churn out his best showing of the young season. I think at the very least another quality start will be in the cards running up against a San Francisco offense that’s been wretched against left-handed pitching. The Giants rank only ahead of the Detroit Tigers in OPS against southpaws and average 3.7 runs per game against them. Per Baseball Savant, it’s had all kinds of issues excelling against sinkerballers, and hasn’t done well against JorMont’s secondary pitches in the curve or changeup either. On the flipside, the Cardinals have teed off on the sinker which is Alex Cobb’s bread and butter.
BET THE CARDINALS
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