We had been cruising for a number of weeks adding to the bankroll at Caesars Sportsbook up until Wednesday, April 24 rolled around and we gave some back to the man with our parlay picks. The pitching change in Tampa Bay proved to be a precursor of an annoying night to come. Shockingly, every run scored in the pitching showdown between Garrett Crochet and Joe Ryan occurred in the first five innings with the former coming one strikeout short of exceeding his K prop and the latter coming an out short of eclipsing his total recorded outs prop. Though four runs were scored through five innings, the Blue Jays and Royals weren’t able to go over the full game total. Thankfully we cashed on each of Yariel Rodriguez’ and Alec Marsh’s props. Here’s to this Hump Day getting us back in the black – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Rays have been one of the bigger money burners of the young baseball betting season with it coming out winners in just 13 of 29 played games; good for a -$484 return on investment against the MLB betting odds. Tampa sits 5-7 on the road (-$264) and has only won two of four played series (Angels/Rockies). If the season were to end today, the Rays would bring up the rear of the AL East. While the injury bug has played a role, it doesn’t look like this year’s edition has the wherewithal to compete with the best of the best.

While I won’t go as far in stating the Brewers are the best of the best, Milwaukee has shown the traits of being one of the better teams in the National League. Coming off an embarrassing series loss at home to the resurgent Yankees, I expect all hands to be on deck for this series before hitting the road for a crucial road set with the division rival Cubs. Zach Eflin has been extremely hittable evidenced by the 9.7 hits the righty has allowed per nine innings. Colin Rea isn’t a prize horse, but he’s 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA with Milwaukee 4-1 in his five made starts. While negative regression is bound to hit evidenced by his bloated 5.31 FIP, I don’t think it will in this spot against the weak hitting Rays.

MLB SAME GAME PARLAY LEGS: BREWERS MONEYLINE + REA OVER TOTAL OUTS RECORDED

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres

Something is clearly amiss with Joe Musgrove right now, and I think it’s only a matter of time until the Padres put him on the IL to figure it out since it won’t get any better in this spot against the Reds. We faded San Diego’s righthander with a big bet in his most recent home start against the Philadelphia Phillies. He rewarded us with 3.2 innings of eight hit (4 HR) and 7 ER ball with two walks and only 4 K in a losing effort against the closing MLB odds. His curve, cutter, and change have been peppered relentlessly with the slider the only offering he can throw his hat on.

Luckily for him, Cincinnati doesn’t have many eye-opening run values per Baseball Savant against that pitch type. That being said, I simply don’t trust his stuff right now. The same can’t and won’t be said of Graham Ashcraft who enters his sixth start 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA and 26:7 K/BB ratio. The righty has been dominant away from the GAB in throwing to a 2.00 ERA and .232 batting average against while allowing no more than 2 ER in all three starts. Within the comforts of Petco, I expect Ashcraft to win this duel and put another tally in Cincy’s win column.

MLB SAME GAME PARLAY LEGS: REDS MONEYLINE + MUSGROVE UNDER TOTAL OUTS RECORDED

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

One can only tip their cap in the general direction of the Cubs right now with the way the team has battled adversity to win 17 of 28 played games ($536). It speaks volumes about the job Craig Counsell and his staff have done early on, but the absence of integral pieces both in the lineup and on the mound looks to be catching up to them. The schedule gets noticeably tougher throughout the month of May, and that includes this series against a Mets team that looks to have completely turned its fortunes around.

While Shota Imanaga is the current +400 frontrunner to take home Rookie of the Year award honors at Caesars, I think he has a rough go of it in his first Citi Field appearance. New York currently owns a losing 7-8 record in its own ball park (-$232), but had taken two straight series before dropping one to St. Louis over the weekend. José Buttó isn’t an arm I’d be rushing to pluck off the waiver wire if still sitting on it, but you can’t argue with his 4.9 hits and 10.2 strikeouts tallied per nine innings over four starts. Though the warning signs are there, I’m still recommending support of the Mets who will be taking back a plus-money price against the road weary Cubs.

MLB SAME GAME PARLAY LEGS: METS MONEYLINE + IMANAGA UNDER TOTAL OUTS RECORDED

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