The only reason Brandon Staley remains the shot caller in Tinseltown is because upper management would’ve been forced to hire a fourth new head coach in a decade if they did in fact let him go. Routinely tabbing a new guy to call the shots of the franchise isn’t a good look. But if any coach deserved to get axed after just two seasons of making the most crucial of decisions, it’s Brandon Staley. His timeout late in overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders cost the Los Angeles Chargers a trip to the postseason in 2021-22, and he then followed that up by pissing away a 27-7 halftime lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild-card round last postseason. After finishing the 2022 season with a 10-7 record and earning a spot in the playoffs, the Chargers are looking to build on their success and make a deep postseason run. Injuries ultimately prevented that from happening a season ago as it can be argued this is the most talented roster in the NFL. I’m interested to see if the team can avoid the injury bug and live up to expectations for the first time since I saw them get wrecked in Super Bowl XXIX.

Los Angeles Chargers: Paper Champions

The Chargers had a promising 2022-23 season, finishing with a 10-7 record and securing the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs. However, their playoff run ended in disappointment as they blew a 20-point halftime lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars to see their campaign end with a thud. Despite the heartbreaking loss, there were several positive takeaways from the season. Led by star QB Justin Herbert, the Chargers’ offense showed flashes of brilliance throughout the season. Herbert continued to impress, showcasing his arm talent and poise in the pocket. Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams provided reliable targets for Herbert when healthy with the injury bug only allowing each to partake in seven games with one another.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers struggled against the run, allowing the highest yards per carry to running backs for the second consecutive season. Injuries to key defensive players such as Joey Bosa and Derwin James really hampered their ability to shut down opposing offenses. The team made some key offseason coaching changes, bringing in Kellen Moore as the new offensive coordinator and Derrick Ansley as the defensive coordinator. Moore’s up-tempo style and aggressive play-calling are expected to inject new life into the Chargers’ offense that has a shiny new toy in the form of Quentin Johnson to make this unit even more of a threat than it already was.

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Los Angeles Chargers Season Wins Total: 9.5

As the 2023-24 season approaches, BetRivers Sportsbook currently has the Chargers’ win total set at 9.5 games which unsurprisingly is a full game lower than the 10.5-game impost LA attempted to exceed last season. In only winning 10 regular season games, the Bolts came up short for their wagering supporters a fourth straight time. The losses for over bettors have been excruciating the last two years with the team coming up a half win short each time. It won’t be easy to halt the streak in 2023-24 either with the Chargers set to run up against what Sharp Football Analysis has ranked the sixth toughest schedule strength. Making matters worse is that it won’t own the rest advantage for a handful of games as well! The chips are insanely stacked against the Bolts who also happen to be a member of one of the toughest divisions in the game.

Case for the Over

With an explosive passing attack led by Justin Herbert and a talented group of receivers, the Chargers have the potential to put up big numbers on offense. Kellen Moore’s play-calling and emphasis on downfield passing could unlock even more of Herbert’s potential putting him in line for his first MVP Award. With the addition of TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston in the draft, the Chargers have added another weapon to their arsenal. Johnston’s size, speed, and ability to create yards after the catch make him a valuable asset in Moore’s offensive scheme. And let us not forget about the last two seasons put forth by Austin Ekeler!

If key offensive players like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams can stay healthy and on the field a majority of the season, the Chargers’ offense will be a force to be reckoned with. A full season of production from these playmakers could lead to an overachieving record. The return of key defensive players, such as Joey Bosa and Derwin James, from injury will provide a boost to the unit. Additionally, the offseason acquisitions of defensive linemen aim to shore up the run defense and provide more stability in the trenches.

Case for the Under

The Chargers face a challenging schedule in the 2023-24 season, with matchups against several top-rated teams and no games against the expected bottom-five teams. This tough slate of opponents could make it difficult for the Chargers to exceed their win total. The AFC West is known for its competitiveness, and the Chargers will face stiff competition within the division throughout the upcoming season. I also hate that the bye comes in Week 5!

While the Chargers’ defense has shown promise, there are still areas of concern, particularly in stopping the run. If the run defense does not improve, it could lead to struggles against teams with strong rushing attacks, resulting in a lower win total. Hopefully newcomers DT Austin Johnson and NT Sebastian Joseph-Day can make immediate impacts and clog the middle allowing Bosa and Khalil Mack to do their things outside. Injuries have plagued the Chargers in recent seasons, and the potential for key players to miss significant time is a legitimate concern. If Justin Herbert or other key contributors suffer injuries, the Chargers’ ability to win games would be compromised; much like last season.

Los Angeles Chargers Schedule

Week 1: vs. Dolphins

Week 2: at Titans

Week 3: at Vikings

Week 4: vs. Raiders

Week 5: Bye Week

Week 6: vs. Cowboys (MNF)

Week 7: at Chiefs

Week 8: vs. Bears (SNF)

Week 9: at Jets (MNF)

Week 10: vs. Lions

Week 11: at Packers

Week 12: vs. Ravens (SNF)

Week 13: at Patriots

Week 14: vs. Broncos

Week 15: at Raiders (TNF)

Week 16: vs. Bills

Week 17: at Broncos

Week 18: vs. Chiefs

Los Angeles Chargers Season Win Total Analysis

The Los Angeles Chargers enter the 2023-24 season with high hopes and a talented roster. With some improvements on both sides of the ball and the hiring of Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator, the Chargers have the potential to exceed expectations and make a deep playoff run. However, a tough schedule, injury concerns, and defensive issues present challenges that could limit their win total. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on the team’s ability to stay healthy, execute on both offense and defense, and navigate through a competitive AFC West division. I’m not one to bet against streaks, but Herbert excelling and tearing the league up sounds fun to me. This is a team that can challenge the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals for the top seed in the AFC provided it finally avoids the injury bug and all pertinent pieces are on deck when it matters most. Hit the over of the suppressed win total regardless of the tough schedule, but also take a stab at an alternate over for a bigger payoff. I think LA either spits the bit or runs away and hides much to the surprise of both NFL bettors and those booking their bets.

Los Angeles Chargers Season Win Total Prediction: Over 9.5 -108

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