Final Four Picks

Two one seeds, a four, and an 11. A tip of the hat to you if you correctly entered the Connecticut Huskies, Purdue Boilermakers, Alabama Crimson Tide, and NC State Wolfpack into the Final Four of your respective NCAA Tournament bracket. Storylines are abound as the setting shifts to Phoenix where the Huskies look determined to repeat, the Boilers attempt to ride Zach Edey to the Promised Land, Bama hopes to stay hot from beyond the arc, and NCST attempts to keep its glass slipper intact. It’s tough to accept, but only three games remain in the Big Dance so let’s see if we can’t continue adding to the bankroll and close this season out on a high – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

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NC State Wolfpack (+9) vs. Purdue Boilermakers

If NC State actually goes on to cut down the nets, I’m heading to Fanatics and purchasing all the banners, all the t-shirts, all the hats, and one if not two D.J. Burns jerseys. This team has done nothing but add to my bankroll ever since I caught wind of Kevin Keatts and Co. potentially becoming the team that busts brackets early in the ACC Tournament. And to think, none of this would’ve occurred had Michael O’Connell not banked that prayer in to send the game against Virginia into overtime. Since that exhilarating 73-65 dub, the Wolfpack have only been favored to come out on top in one of their last five played games and they failed to cover that game by the hook in another overtime win over the fighting Jack Gohlkes out of Oakland!

Kevin Keatts’ kids are the sixth No. 11 seed to punch a ticket to the Final Four. Their 14 overall losses are the most a Final Four team has ever had. Now, they must run up against the Midwest Region’s No. 1 seed after taking down the No. 6, No. 14, No. 2, and No. 4 in their own region. With every passing game, most college basketball bettors were waiting for the other shoe to drop and for Cinderella’s carriage to turn back into a pumpkin. Could the clock strike midnight in the NCAA Tournament semis? Most definitely. Will it? I’m not entirely sold. 

Much would have to go right for North Carolina State to have a puncher’s chance, and a bulk of it would depend on Burns being able to stay out of foul trouble as he does his best to prevent the Boilers 7’4” center from going HAM. Even if that occurs, the Wolfpack will have to hit shots against arguably the toughest defense it will have run up against to date, and prevent Purdue from taking advantage of the enormous rebounding edge it holds in this matchup. Even with that the case, I’m seeing this march to the title all the way through and will be taking the points at Caesars and sprinkling some beer money on the Wolfpack winning outright much like I have every step of the way since mid-March. 

UConn Huskies (-11.5) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. The Huskies have cut my throat on their way back to the Final 4 as I admittedly took the points with Northwestern, San Diego State, and Illinois in their last three wins and covers against the closing March Madness betting odds. I still can’t believe what went down in the second half against the Illini after a competitive 28-23 game at the half was immediately turned on its head after Danny Hurley’s kids rattled off 30 straight points to cruise to the 77-52 triumph as what turned out to be laughable 8.5-point favorites. 

Also taking a nice chunk out of my bottom line has been Nate Oats’ Crimson Tide who, in my opinion, are frauds with a capital F! I’m still smarting over that win and cover against a Grand Canyon team that had every opportunity in the world to roll the Tide but killed itself instead with missed free throws, turnovers, and a disgusting showing from beyond the arc. Bama’s defense is the textbook definition of a sieve. Save for the win and cover against the Antelopes, the defense has served up north of 88 points per game in its other three Big Dance wins. How do you think that unit holds up against KenPom’s top-ranked offense?

The Tide live and die from beyond the arc, and the latter will play out Saturday night against a Huskies defense ranked 28^th along the perimeter that also ranks 47^th in defensive 3-point rate. On top of that, UConn boasts an elite 2-point defense (#2) that matches up extremely well with Alabama’s ninth ranked 2-point percentage offense. If the long range shots aren’t falling, the Huskies advantage at both ends of the court will simply be too much to overcome for a Crimson Tide defense that will do very little at preventing the defending champs from getting everything and anything they want. Look for Donovan Clingan and his mates to take another step closer towards repeating with a margin win likely the result. 

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