College Football Week 12 Opening Line Report

By Phil Simon

Covering a 31-point spread is one thing, winning the game outright when such a big underdog is another. That’s just a sign of the unpredictable nature of college football and the risks associated with betting on the sport. On the other side, those backing Kansas in its monumental upset of Texas are pretty excited and ready to get back to the betting window.

As we close in on the final weeks of the regular season there is still plenty to be decided. And while it’s not technically rivalry week, there are a few big games that have more at stake than just the final score. And the way things are going Cincinnati might make the College Football Playoff by default. Oklahoma’s loss to Baylor leaves just three undefeated FBS teams heading into Week 12. Cincinnati, Texas-San Antonio and Georgia are the programs remaining with a 0 on the right hand side of their ledger.

The Bearcats beat USF, 45-28, on Friday, but failed to cover the 24.5-point closing spread for their fourth consecutive ATS loss. Saturday’s matchup with SMU is their toughest since beating Notre Dame in Week 5. UC opened as a 12.5-point favorite. They had been favored by more than 20-points in each of their last six games.

Once again the betting week opens with a heavy dose of the Mid-American Conference. Miami (OH) is tied with Kent State atop the East standings and hosts Bowling Green on Tuesday as a 16-point favorite on the opening line. The Golden Flashes are in action Saturday laying 13.5-points to Akron.

A couple of big rivalry games are on tap in the Pac-12. The Cal Bears are hopeful they can field a team for the Big Game against Stanford. It hasn’t been a good past few weeks with a loss to Arizona that ended the Wildcats’ 20-game losing streak followed by Saturday’s cancellation due to COVID of the scheduled contest with USC. Still, the Bears are favored by 3.5-points on the opening line. At the same time and about 400 miles south USC and UCLA will tangle. The Bruins hit the board as a 3-point favorite in that matchup.

Week 12 Schedule

Tuesday, November 16
Toledo at Ohio (+6.5)
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (+5)
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) (-16)

Wednesday, November 17
Northern Illinois at Buffalo (+1.5)
Central Michigan at Ball State (-2.5)

Thursday, November 18
Louisville at Duke (+19)

Friday, November 19
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (-16.5)
Memphis at #17 Houston (-9.5)
Arizona at Washington State (-15)
Air Force at Nevada (-2)
#23 San Diego State at UNLV (+11)

Saturday, November 20
Charleston Southern at #1 Georgia

#7 Michigan State at #5 Ohio State (-18.5)
The Buckeyes are in the driver’s seat to clinch another Big Ten East title but they have a couple of huge games remaining against teams tracking them down in the division. First up is a contest with Michigan State inside the horseshoe with OSU laying 18.5-points on the opening line. A win and a Michigan loss at Maryland will give the Buckeyes the title, but in all likelihood the winner won’t be decided until the regular season finale. After a couple of close calls against Penn State and Nebraska where they failed to cover, OSU handled Purdue 59-31 last week covering the 19-point spread.

Iowa State at #12 Oklahoma (-4)
OU’s unbeaten start seemed precarious with a number of close calls earlier in the season and a defense with too many holes. They were able to win their first nine games until everything sorta caught up with them in a loss to Baylor on Saturday. With the CFP hopes all but dashed, the Sooners now have to worry about winning the Big 12, which isn’t a guarantee. Iowa State is a good team and if OU doesn’t get over the disappointment they could be had. Oddsmakers positioned the Sooners as just a 4-point favorite on the opening line.

Prairie View A&M at #11 Texas A&M
#13 Wake Forest at Clemson (-3.5)
Purdue vs. Northwestern (+11.5)
New Mexico State at Kentucky (-36)
Tennessee State at Mississippi State
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky (-10.5)
Florida State at Boston College (-2.5)
Wofford at North Carolina
Rutgers at Penn State (-17)
UMass at Army (-37)
Texas at West Virginia (-2)
South Florida at Tulane (-3.5)
Kent State at Akron (-13.5)
Texas State at Coastal Carolina (-22)
Illinois at #18 Iowa (-12.5)
Arkansas State at Georgia State (-16)
Georgia Tech at #6 Notre Dame (-16)
Washington at Colorado (+6)

#21 Arkansas at #2 Alabama (-20.5)
It’s back to the grind for the Crimson Tide, who had a cakewalk in Saturday’s 59-3 win over New Mexico State covering the mammoth 51.5-point closing line. They get a tough Arkansas squad that beat Texas AM earlier this season, the same Aggies team that handed Bama its lone setback. Oddsmakers weren’t swayed by that turn of events positioning the Tide as a 20.5-point home favorite. Bama has been favored by at least two touchdowns in every game going 6-4 ATS this season.

SMU at #3 Cincinnati (-12.5)
The only thing Cincinnati can do is keep winning. One of three FBS teams to win every game this season, the Bearcats’ hopes of reaching the CFP likely hinge on what teams ahead of them in the playoff rankings do. They got some help with Oklahoma losing last week and Michigan State the week before. This is their stiffest test since knocking off Notre Dame with UC laying 12.5-points on the opening line.

#8 Michigan at Maryland (+14.5)
Nebraska at #19 Wisconsin (-10)
Virginia at #20 Pittsburgh (-13.5)
UAB at #15 UTSA (-6)
Marshall at Charlotte (+14.5)
Old Dominion at Middle Tennessee (-3.5)
Minnesota at Indiana (+6.5)
East Carolina at Navy (+4)
Appalachian State at Troy (+10)
#14 BYU at Georgia Southern (+20)
Syracuse at #25 NC State (-11.5)
Florida at Missouri (+7)
Rice at UTEP (-10)
UConn at UCF (-28.5)
#22 Louisiana at Liberty (+5)
Kansas at TCU (-21.5)
Temple at Tulsa (-22)
UCLA at USC (+3)
#11 Baylor at Kansas State (PK)
Auburn at South Carolina (+6.5)
North Texas at Florida International (+9)
California at Stanford (+3.5)

#4 Oregon at #24 Utah (-3)
With both teams leading their respective divisions this could be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship game. Utah has a 1-game lead over Arizona State, but the Utes own the tie breaker so a win in the next two games gives them the title. The league’s CFP hopes rest with the Ducks, who would likely be eliminated from contention with a loss. Oregon is catching 3-points on the opening line and they are 2-0 SU and ATS when playing as a dog.

Vanderbilt at #10 Ole Miss (-36.5)
South Alabama at Tennessee (-27.5)
Virginia Tech at Miami (-7)
#9 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (+10.5)
Wyoming at Utah State (-6)
UL Monroe at LSU (-28.5)
New Mexico at Boise State (-27)
Arizona State at Oregon State (+2.5)
Colorado State at Hawai’i (+1.5)