College Football Week 11 Opening Line Report

By Phil Simon

With the first CFP rankings of the 2021 college football season released last week, all the attention is over what teams place where. Just like the AP top-25 poll, the CFP is fluid and will change every week. The Michigan State Spartans will drop in the CFP rankings after suffering an upset loss to Purdue last week, just like we called on our Week 10 opening line report. Sparty fell from the unbeaten ranks and also dropped three spots in the national poll ahead of Saturday’s matchup with Maryland where MSU is positioned as a 13-point favorite on the opening line.

The betting week gets another early start with MACtion taking over the airwaves on Tuesday and Wednesday. If you can’t wait for the weekend to whet your betting appetite, there are some good matchups on the docket. A battle for the top spot in the West Division takes place on Nov. 10 with Northern Illinois hosting Ball State. NIU had its five-game winning streak snapped last week by Kent State and looks to maintain its slight lead in the standings as a 2.5-point home dog on the opening line.

As a Group of Five program trying to crack the P5 landscape, the Cincinnati Bearcats get solo billing on Friday for their AAC tilt with South Florida. One of only four unbeaten teams remaining at the FBS level, Cincy is ranked No. 2 in the AP poll and should move up the CFP rankings from the sixth position with Michigan State’s loss. The Bearcats need style points and covering the 23.5-point opening line should give them some. The mid-week games just get us primed for a full slate of games on Saturday with four top-25 matchups on the slate.

Week 11 Schedule

Tuesday, November 9
Buffalo at Miami (OH) (-7)
Akron at Western Michigan (-25.5)
Ohio at Eastern Michigan (-7.5)

Wednesday, November 10
Toledo at Bowling Green (+10)
Ball State at Northern Illinois (+2.5)
Kent State at Central Michigan (-3)

Thursday, November 11
North Carolina at #25 Pittsburgh (-6)
The path to the ACC Coastal crown got bumpy a few weeks ago, but the Pitt Panthers responded with a big 54-29 win over Duke on Saturday. They control their own destiny to the title but have some difficult games ahead starting with Thursday’s clash with UNC. The Tar Heels were a preseason top-10 and showed last week they still have some fight by handing Wake Forest its first loss in a shootout, 58-55. Both teams can score points with the opening total set at 75, which seems low. Pitt is laying 6-points on the opening line and is 7-2 ATS.

Friday, November 12
#2 Cincinnati at South Florida (+23.5)
There isn’t much the Bearcats can do to persuade the CFP committee except keep winning. And though they are ranked No. 2 in the national polls and one of four unbeatens in the FBS, the likelihood of them getting a playoff berth is remote even if they annihilate their remaining competition. Favored by more than 22 points in their last three games, the Bearcats failed to get a payout beating Tulsa by eight points last week and getting by Navy 27-20 three weeks ago. They are 5-4 ATS overall.

Wyoming at Boise State (-14)

Saturday, November 13
New Mexico State at #3 Alabama (-52)
Bama takes a break from the SEC grind for a body bag game with New Mexico State. The Aggies have been an underdog of at least 17 points in seven of their eight games against FBS competition and this isn’t a fair fight. That’s why we have point spreads and NMS is looking to even the playing field by getting 52-points on the opening line. While they are just 1-8 SU the Aggies are 6-3 ATS. The last time the teams played a few years ago, the Tide rolled to a 62-10 victory. They were favored by 54-points in that matchup so maybe the betting markets are catching up.

#9 Michigan at #23 Penn State (-1)
The Wolverines can still win the Big Ten East but they first need to beat Penn State and knock off Ohio State in a few weeks. They bounced back from their only loss of the season to beat Indiana 29-7 covering the 21-point spread improving to 7-2 ATS on the year. UM is catching a point on the opening line for this road tilt after Penn State stopped a three-game slide with a payout win over Maryland on Saturday.

#4 Oklahoma at #18 Baylor (+6)
Mississippi State at #16 Auburn (-5.5)
Northwestern at #20 Wisconsin (-24)
Samford at Florida
UConn at Clemson
Syracuse at Louisville
Rutgers at Indiana
Maine at UMass
West Virginia at Kansas State
UCF at SMU
East Carolina at Memphis
#17 Houston at Temple (+25)
Bucknell at Army
Western Kentucky at Rice
Georgia State at #22 Coastal Carolina (-10.5)
Utah at Arizona (+23.5)
South Alabama at Appalachian State (-23)
Georgia Southern at Texas State

#1 Georgia at Tennessee (+20.5)
Georgia secured the SEC East title a few weeks ago and is now looking to complete the undefeated season. The Dawgs complete the conference portion of their schedule as a 20.5-point favorite on the opening line against Tennessee. Playing against some lofty spreads the Dawgs have gone 5-3 ATS since the season opener, when they were catching 3-points against Clemson. They’ve been at least a two-touchdown favorite in their last eight games. They failed to cover the 40.5-point line in last week’s 43-6 win over Missouri, but allowed fewer than 10 points for the sixth time and have cashed the UNDER in their last five games.

Purdue at #6 Ohio State (-20)
Minnesota at #19 Iowa (-6.5)
Charlotte at Louisiana Tech
Florida International at Middle Tennessee
Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion
UAB at Marshall
Southern Miss at #15 UTSA (-33)
Miami at Florida State (+3)
Boston College at Georgia Tech (-2.5)
Duke at Virginia Tech
Iowa State at Texas Tech
#24 Louisiana at Troy (+6.5)
USC at California (+1.5)
Maryland at #8 Michigan State (-13)
South Carolina at Missouri (PK)
UTEP at North Texas
Tulsa at Tulane
Hawai’i at UNLV
Arkansas State at UL Monroe
Stanford at Oregon State (-10)
#11 Texas A&M at #12 Ole Miss (+3)
Kentucky at Vanderbilt (+21)
New Mexico at Fresno State
Arizona State at Washington (+5.5)
Air Force at Colorado State
#21 NC State at #13 Wake Forest (-2.5)
#7 Notre Dame at Virginia (+5)
Arkansas at LSU (+2)
Kansas at Texas (-30)
TCU at #10 Oklahoma State (-13.5)
Colorado at UCLA (-15)
Washington State at #5 Oregon (-14)

Nevada at #24 San Diego State (-1)
The top two teams in the West Division of the Mountain West Conference square off with the title up for grabs. The Aztecs have been playing with fire recently with their undefeated campaign ended two weeks ago in a loss to Fresno State. Their last three wins have come by seven points or less with one of those games decided in overtime. They are 1-2-1 ATS in that span after four straight covers leading up to it.

Utah State at San José State (-4.5)