XFL Betting – Division Championship Playoff Picks

It took the entire 10 weeks of the XFL regular season to determine the playoff participants but we finally got it settled with the final game of the reboot campaign determining the second-place finisher in the XFL North. Division champs were decided a few weeks ago with the DC Defenders posting the best record at 9-1. Houston danced through a rough stretch in the middle of the year winning the XFL South by going 6-0 against division foes. Those two will host the division championship games.

Thanks to San Antonio’s loss on Saturday, the Arlington Renegades finished second in the South making their season finale with Houston meaningless. And I don’t think either team wanted to give too much away with the clubs battling in the first playoff game of the weekend. The Roughnecks ended up with a payout win, 25-9, to secure the season sweep of the entire division. The Week 10 contest between the clubs went off as a pick ‘em, but with more at stake Saturday and Houston’s dominance over Arlington, the Roughnecks hit the board as 6.5-point favorite on the XFL betting line at BetRivers sportsbook.

After watching the Battlehawks obliterate Orlando, 53-28, it was up to Seattle to beat Vegas on Sunday and let the tie-breakers decide. Mission accomplished. The Sea Dragons won the game 28-9 earning second place by virtue of a fifth tie-breaker. Two of Seattle’s three losses during the year came against DC with the teams separated by just five points, and many would say the Dragons should’ve won at least one of those games and possibly both. But they didn’t. It’s hard to beat a team three times and more so when the clubs are evenly-matched. Still, the Defenders are a 3.5-point XFL favorite this week looking to book a trip to the title game.

XFL Playoff Picks

Saturday, April 29, 2023

Arlington Renegades at Houston Roughnecks, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

XFL Line: Houston -6.5, O/U 41

Houston completed its sweep with a 25-9 win last week, outscoring Arlington by an average of 12.5 points in the two victories. The playoffs are called the second season for a reason with both teams 0-0, and like I said it’s hard to beat a team three times in a single season. Being the better team all around, though, the Roughnecks shouldn’t lose on Saturday, but that’s why they play the game. Houston owns the league’s top ranked defense allowing 271.4 yards per game, and the group was especially solid against division foes outscoring the XFL South 164-79. The Roughnecks were also an XFL best bet within the division going 5-1 ATS with two payouts against Arlington. Led by 9.5 sacks from Trent Harris, Houston had a league best 35 on the year. They got to Luis Perez twice last weekend holding him to 205 passing yards on 36 attempts while allowing only 245 total yards.

Offense has been a problem for the Renegades all season and there’s no magic bullet that will turn things around in a week. Converting on chances would increase their win probability after going just 3 of 12 on third down in the finale. Houston’s offense has issues of its own with a revolving door at quarterback. Brandon Silvers opened as the starter with an injury shelving him for parts of the season. He didn’t play last week allowing Cole McDonald and Kaleb Eleby to go 14 of 18 for 145 yards. The efficient attack was bolstered by 120 rushing yards and a TD from Jeremy Cox.

XFL Prediction: Houston -6.5 / UNDER 41

Sunday, April 30, 2023

Seattle Sea Dragons at DC Defenders, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN)

XFL Line: DC -3, O/U 49

You have to ask how did DC go 9-1 during the regular season. Defense isn’t going to win a title unless the Defenders can live up to their nickname. They ranked last among the eight teams allowing 341.4 total yards with 266.1 of those coming through the air. DC also gave up a bunch of points over the second half of the season with opponents averaging 30 points in the last five contests. The Defenders finished sixth in scoring defense overall yielding 24.0 points per game.

Statistically Seattle is the better defensive team allowing the fewest points per game and second fewest yards. However, Jordan Ta’amu figured them out in Week 8 throwing for 247 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-33 road win. The Defenders also squeaked by in the opener taking advantage of three Ben DiNucci turnovers to post a 22-18 victory. I like Seattle’s offense with DiNucci leading the league in passing yards with the second-most scoring passes. And fewer mistakes will allow Seattle to get the upset road win as they are a 3-point dog on the XFL betting line.

XFL Prediction: Seattle +3 / OVER 49

Check out the latest XFL betting odds at BetRivers.