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Favored to win the XFL championship for most of the regular season, the DC Defenders can finally lay claim to the hardware against an unexpected opponent when the league showcases its title game on Saturday May 13. The Defenders did their part beating Seattle for the third time this year, 37-21, to win the XFL North title while improving to 10-1 overall. DC’s top ranked scoring offense during the regular season shredded Seattle’s D for nearly 400 yards to easily cover the 2-point XFL betting line while improving to 8-3 ATS.
Their opponent in the inaugural championship game is the Arlington Renegades, who dropped four of their last five regular season tilts and finished two games below .500 at 4-6. Proving once again that upsets happen, the Renegades knocked off Houston 26-11 in the XFL South championship as a 7.5-point underdog. The Roughnecks looked like an XFL best bet ahead of the game, but Luis Perez sparked a resurgent Arlington attack throwing for 289 yards and three TDs with the Renegades amassing 419 total yards against the XFL’s top ranked defensive unit.
DC hosted Arlington in Week 9 with the Defenders eking out a 28-26 overtime victory as a 9.5-point favorite on the XFL betting line at BetRivers sportsbook. The Renegades scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, which was more than they scored in seven complete regular season games, to force the extra session. Arlington had 120 more total yards, seven more first downs and possessed the football for eight more minutes. Despite that the Defenders opened as a 5.5-point favorite at BetRivers.
XFL Championship Game
Saturday, May 13, 2023
Arlington Renegades at DC Defenders, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
XFL Line: DC -5.5, O/U 46.5
The anticipated matchup of the two regular season division winners didn’t happen thanks to Arlington’s rather convincing win over Houston for the XFL South crown. And the Renegades have to be feeling pretty good about their chances after a narrow loss to DC during the regular year. Still, this is a team that sputtered offensively all season prompting a mid-season trade for veteran QB Luis Perez.
Totaling an XFL low 146 points during the season, Arlington struggled to win games and benefitted by being in a weak division. The three teams that finished behind Houston – Arlington, San Antonio and Orlando – combined to go 8-22 with Arlington the best of the bunch. That didn’t matter once the playoffs started, which is why it’s often referred to as the second season. Last week Arlington matched a season-high for points with Perez going 19 of 27 for 289 yards and three touchdowns and De’Veon Smith adding 94 of the teams 137 rushing yards in a balanced performance.
The Renegades were solid defensively allowing the third fewest yards per game and less than 20 points per contest. The group limited Houston to less than 100 yards passing and just 225 total last week while recording three sacks and an interception.
With Jordan Ta’amu and Abram Smith pacing an offense that scored at least 28 points in each of the last nine games, the Defenders wrecked better defenses than what the Renegades have. DC led the XFL by a wide margin averaging nearly 30 points per game while amassing 343.2 yards per contest. And they have the firepower to overcome mistakes. Two Ta’amu picks last week didn’t prevent DC from cruising to big win over a Seattle team many though would win the contest.
The XFL latest line has the total at 46.5, which seems high for an Arlington squad that cashed the UNDER eight times, including in last week’s tilt. However, the one thing that could prevent DC from winning the championship is a defensive breakdown. The group was the most generous during the season allowing an average of more than 341 yards and 24 points. Arlington scored its most points in a regular season game when the clubs met in Week 9 getting 335 passing yards from Perez. However the yards allowed stat is a bit deceiving since DC led most of the time and teams played catch up against a prevent defense.
I said last week that Houston shouldn’t lose to the Renegades, and look at what happened. I was 0-2 on my ATS picks backing the Roughnecks and Sea Dragons. I made up for it on the total nailing both games on my XFL best bets.
XFL Prediction: DC -6.5 / OVER 46.5
Check out the latest XFL betting odds at BetRivers.
