Week 3 NFL Totals Best Bets

It’s been a weird first two weeks of the 2023 NFL season from a totals standpoint. In Week 1 12 of the 16 games played below the closing total on the NFL betting line with that trend taking a nasty shift in Week 2. With points scored at a voluminous rate we saw 13 games go over the closing total last week. So, where does that leave us for Week 3? Well, nobody knows for sure but I’ll do my best to highlight a few games that will make us a few bucks when making a NFL wager on the over/under at BetRivers sportsbook.

With offenses coming to life around the NFL last week so did my picks on the totals. After hitting just one winner in Week 1 I went 2-1 last week with the game between Detroit and Seattle my only loss. I even mentioned that the teams were involved in shootouts in their two previous meetings and still sided with the UNDER. The teams played the highest scoring game of Week 2. One of three games going below the total was a winner on my card. Backing the UNDER on a total of 40.5 in the Saints/Panthers game was fruitful. New Orleans improved to 2-0 with a 20-17 victory.

NFL Week 3 Totals Best Bets

Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings

Pick: UNDER 54

We know both teams can light up the scoreboard and they’ve been just as bad stopping opponents, as evidenced by the total being the highest on the Week 2 board. Dating back to last season and including the playoffs, the Los Angeles Chargers have allowed at least 27 points in four straight games cashing the OVER each time. It’s concerning since Brandon Staley was defensive coordinator for several seasons with success making him an attractive head coaching prospect. There’s talent on that side of the football and the Bolts had success last season during their playoff push.

The Vikings’ stop group hasn’t been helped by an offense that’s turned the ball over seven times in two games. And the defense has allowed an average of almost six yards per play. With both clubs winless entering this one I do expect them to play with a sense of urgency since the odds of making the playoffs decrease with each loss. While we should see points, the total on the NFL betting line seems too high, which is why backing the UNDER is the NFL best bet.

Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders

Pick: OVER 43

We saw how explosive the Buffalo Bills are when they value the football. With Josh Allen tossing three picks and losing fumble, the Bills lost the opener, 22-16. It was a different story last week with zero turnovers and a 38-10 pasting of the Raiders. Allen tossed three scoring passes and the ground game was bolstered by 123 yards from James Cook. That kind of balance, along with Allen’s elusiveness, will offset Washington’s talented defensive front.

The team formerly known as the Redskins showed some offensive clout in its comeback win over Denver. Led by Sam Howell, who’s undefeated in three starts, Washington overcame a 21-3 deficit to beat the Broncos as a 3.5-point NFL betting pick dog. Howell has grasped Eric Bieniemy’s offense throwing for 299 yards and two TDs last week with Brian Robinson contributing 87 yards and two scores on the ground. The offenses can certainly produce making the OVER a smart NFL wager.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: UNDER 43

Offense has been a problem for these two early in the year. The Pittsburgh Steelers scored 26 points in Monday night’s win getting defensive touchdowns from Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt. You can’t expect the defense to help out every game. The Steelers have scored only 19 offensive points with nearly as many punts (13). And Kenny Pickett says the group lacks an identity right now.

The Raiders have no identity either after replacing longtime starter Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo. They’re tied for last in scoring and currently rank 30th in the NFL with an average of 250.5 yards. Last year’s league-leading rusher Josh Jacobs ran for negative yards in Buffalo and has just 46 yards on 28 carries this season. The teams last played in Week 16 last year with Pittsburgh escaping with a 13-10 road win. We could easily see something similar on Sunday night. Since I’m going to bet on NFL games I’ll have to back the UNDER in this matchup.

Check out the latest NFL betting odds at BetRivers.