Week 1 NFL Totals Best Bets

With the game evolving in favor of the offense over the years and the forward pass the norm instead of the exception, we’ve seen scores increase around the league. And oddsmakers have had to adjust in order to keep up. Preseason results are a sign that we could see even more points on the board during the 2023 NFL regular season. The Kansas City Chiefs averaged nearly 30 points last season to lead the NFL but cashed the OVER on the NFL betting line in less than half their games.

With three rookie quarterbacks set to start their team’s opener and several other QBs chucking it for a new team, it might take some time to get a clear picture of what’s happening. Will No. 1 overall draft pick Bryce Young turn Carolina’s offense around? How will Aaron Rodgers do under the microscope in New York? Those are questions that will be answered as the season progresses. But I’m not going to wait to bet on NFL games instead I’ll dive into the numbers to see where money can be made on the totals.

NFL Week 1 Totals Best Bets

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints

Pick: OVER 41.5

The Saints were a little below the league average in passing and total offense last year prompting them to acquire an established quarterback. They tried several players at the position since the retirement of Drew Brees and none have quite worked out. When Derek Carr became available after being exiled from the Raiders, New Orleans jumped at the chance to get him. And it looks like a good fit. Another issue haunting the passing game was the continued absence of Michael Thomas. Since leading the NFL with 149 catches and 1,725 yards in 2019, Thomas has played in only 10 games. Having him around will help absorb the absence of Alvin Kamara.

With Derrick Henry chewing up yardage on the ground the Titans haven’t thrown the ball much. When facing Tennessee you know you’re getting a steady diet of Henry and that won’t change. What will change is Tennessee’s approach to the passing attack. The club acquired DeAndre Hopkins to improve the 30th ranked pass offense and a talent like Hopkins isn’t going to be wasted blocking downfield for Henry. Improved offenses on both sides make this an NFL best bet against the OVER.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Pick: UNDER 46.5

The Rams sold their soul a few years ago to reach the Super Bowl and they’re paying for it now. At least they won the Lombardi Trophy following the 2021 season, still what they went through last year was painful. Injuries played a role in their 5-12 record and the hope is that Matthew Stafford can return to his old self. Even if he does, Stafford will have some new faces around him. Old pal Cooper Kupp has been ruled out and Stafford’s wife talked about the disconnect with her hubby and his younger teammates. That doesn’t make for much excitement on the offensive end.

A career year from Geno Smith helped the Seahawks get over Russell Wilson. And Russ’s foibles in Denver also made the transition easier. Even with Smith completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 4,282 yards, Seattle averaged just 23.9 points. The Rams lost a few players from their defense but that group appears to be their strength and I just can’t see them lighting up the scoreboard against a decent Seattle D so I have to go with the UNDER as my NFL betting pick in this matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Pick: OVER 47.5

With Joe Burrow expected to play after dealing with a calf injury throughout training camp, we’ll see a battle between two of the NFL’s top QBs. Burrow has reached elite status after leading the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 2021 and the AFC Championship last year. And Cincy could be more powerful offensively with Orlando Brown anchoring the line and Joe Mixon back in the mix. And Burrow has arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Just a few years ago Deshaun Watson was considered one of the best at his position. Two tumultuous years set him back but he still has the talent and is looking to start over in his first full season as the Browns starter. “I’m not the same guy. I feel like I’ve improved. I’ve evolved to a new level,” Watson said recently. All things considered I thought the total was too low so I jumped on the OVER on the NFL betting line.

Check out the latest NFL betting odds at BetRivers.