NBA Betting Trends
November 1, 2021
College Football Week 10 Opening Line Report
November 5, 2021
As we get closer to the halfway point of the 2021 NFL season we’re starting to get a clearer picture of what the postseason might look like. Of course it’s all speculation with 10 or more games for every team remaining to be played and things can change quickly. But one team that looks legit is the Arizona Cardinals, who have flown up the Super Bowl champion odds board as one of four teams currently with odds shorter than 9/1.
A disappointing finish to last season marred what was otherwise a nice campaign for the Cards. Their offseason moves to solidify the defense have worked and Kyler Murray has emerged as an MVP candidate. Injuries can derail a team’s chances, though, and Arizona was dealt a blow by the loss of J.J. Watt for possibly the rest of the season.
Through Week 7 there are seven teams in the AFC and six in the NFC with winning records. The Cards remain the only unbeaten team with four other NFC clubs with only one loss. One of those is the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But it’s the Buffalo Bills who stand alone on the odds board as the Super Bowl favorite, supplanting preseason favorite Kansas City. The Chiefs have issues, mainly on defense and with Patrick Mahomes turnovers, but those areas can be fixed.
At this point the NFC looks like it could be a race to determine the final two playoff slots. Five teams enter Week 8 with zero or one loss leaving the others to battle it out. New Orleans and Minnesota own the last two spots with three teams having the same number of wins as the Vikings. However, Chicago has no offense and Carolina’s fast start was a mirage. And it looks like the three teams that don’t win the NFC East will be left out once again.
The Los Angeles Rams went all in when they dealt for Matthew Stafford last offseason. It looks like a good move with the teams sitting at 6-1. Their only loss was to Arizona, by a lot, and LA gets a shot to redeem that setback later in the schedule. After two straight trips to the NFC Championship this could finally be the year for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. They overcame a disastrous opening week and have played well winning six in a row since.
Things are just as convoluted in the AFC thanks to the emergence of the Cincinnati Bengals, who actually hold the top spot in the conference by tie-breakers even though they have the same 5-2 record as Las Vegas and Tennessee. They’ve also climbed up the Super Bowl odds chart after not getting a sniff before the campaign started.
There is a little more separation in the conference with the bottom teams sucking pretty bad this year. Houston, Miami, Jacksonville and the Jets all have only one win and it doesn’t appear as though any of them are about to turn it around any time soon. Five AFC teams have three wins and there is no in-between with the conference void of a 2-win team.
We don’t know what’s going to happen from here on out, that’s why betting a Super Bowl, conference or division winner is a futures bet. One thing that can drastically change the trajectory of a team is an injury to a key player. Seattle had to deal with the loss of Russell Wilson, losing two games in his absence.
The good news is that the Seahawks host Jacksonville in Week 8 and hope to have Wilson back when they return from their Week 9 bye. They do have ground to make up but Seattle has just one fewer victory than seventh-place Minnesota.
And when thinking about placing a wager on a team to make or miss the playoffs, which you can do at some sportsbooks by the way, remember the format changed last season with seven teams from each conference qualifying and only one squad from each getting a first-round bye. Adding more intrigue to the playoff picture is the addition of one more regular season game.
Updated Super Bowl LVI Odds
| Buffalo Bills | +425 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +478 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +748 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +785 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +926 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1184 |
| Tennessee Titans | +1309 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1315 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1383 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1665 |
| Cleveland Browns | +2535 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +3089 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3930 |
| New Orleans Saints | +4000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +6500 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +7000 |
| San Francisco | 49ers+8500 |
| New England Patriots | +9000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +10,000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +18,500 |
| Denver Broncos | +20,000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +23,500 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +27,500 |
| Chicago Bears | +35,000 |
| Washington Football Team | +37,500 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +40,000 |
| New York Giants | +100,000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +100,000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +300,000 |
| New York Jets | +600,000 |
We’ve never had a 2-loss team or a program from outside the Power Five make the CFP. While Clemson is on the board at +8000, the Tigers already have two losses putting their streak of six straight CFP appearances in jeopardy. Alabama is the only other school to appear in that many playoffs and has a record three national championships since the CFP was introduced following the 2014 season.
And the Crimson Tide are once again among the best teams in the country. They lost recently snapping a 19-game winning streak, but even the best have lapses every now and then. Despite the setback to Texas AM, the Tide are the second favorite on the odds board at +220.
The de facto national championship could actually take place in the SEC title game with Georgia and Alabama on a collision course for Atlanta in early December. There is a scenario where both teams reach the CFP and play for the title, much like they did in 2018 when the Crimson Tide won the championship in overtime.
While the SEC is widely considered the toughest conference, the Big Ten might be the best this season. Unfortunately, with three traditional powers in the same division the reach of the conference is limited. The Big Ten has never had more than one team in the CFP and with Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State battling each other in the East only one of those teams is likely to emerge, but which one? Iowa rose in the ranks but a tough loss to Purdue only magnified their flaws. Ohio State is the third favorite at +750 and with a loss already this season the Buckeyes can’t afford another. And they still have games with Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State on the slate.
Oklahoma is creeping up the odds board and currently sits as the fourth favorite at +1200. There were some tough games early on but the Sooners came out ahead each time. An epic comeback win over Texas in the Red River Rivalry sparked by a quarterback change may have put OU on the championship path. The Sooners had no trouble with a decent TCU squad behind Caleb Williams, who threw for 295 yards and four scores with an additional 66 yards and a touchdown on the ground in his first start. Now is the time to jump on the Sooners with their odds likely to shrink in the coming weeks.
Parity has prevented the Pac-12 from being represented in the CFP. The league hasn’t had a playoff participant in the last four seasons and Oregon saw its odds drop to +6000 following a loss to a mediocre Stanford club and a narrow victory over a bad Cal squad. Still, the Ducks have that W over Ohio State in their back pocket and if they can regain their swagger I’m sure they can make some noise. And at this point they are the conference’s only hope.
