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Almost one year ago to the day Tom Aspinall not only lost his fight with Curtis Blaydes but also sustained a severe knee injury. On Saturday the Englishman returns to the Octagon for the first time since that dark day as part of the headline bout at UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura. Oddsmakers don’t expect to see much rust positioning Aspinall as a big -485 favorite on the UFC betting line for his main event heavyweight clash with Marcin Tybura in London. The UFC’s return to England is bittersweet for Aspinall, who headlined the promotion’s trip across the pond last year lasting only 15 seconds before the injury rendered him unable to continue. The loss stopped an eight fight winning streak and was his first in UFC.
The headline bout is one of six fights on the main card with an additional nine fights in the prelim round. Bet on UFC online at BetRivers sportsbook with odds for every fight on the ticket. The action takes place on Saturday, July 22, 2023 from 02 Arena in London, England. Prelims start at 12 p.m. ET with the main card scheduled for 3 p.m. ET. All fights will air on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura Main Card Odds
Marcin Tybura +343 vs. Tom Aspinall -485
Julija Stoliarenko +161 vs. Molly McCann -205
Andre Fili +161 vs. Nathaniel Wood -205
Paul Craig +183 vs. Andre Muniz -235
Fares Ziam -165 vs. Jai Herbert +131
Josh Culibao +110 vs. Lerone Murphy -140
For a guy coming off a serious knee injury who hasn’t fought in a year, Aspinall (12-3, 9 KOs, 3 SUBs) is getting plenty of love and respect from UFC betting sites. There’s good reason for that since he was on the fast track to a heavyweight title fight.
Aspinall came to UFC with a 7-2 record and proceeded to win his first five fights, all by stoppage with four of them ending before the first round bell. He served up a bunch of knees and punches to TKO Jake Collier in his promotional debut. Three months later he put Alan Baudot down just 95 seconds into their match. Andrei Arlovski made it to the second round only to get subbed with a rear naked choke.
Sergey Spivak was the next victim TKO’d halfway through the opening round in September 2021. Facing his toughest opponent at the time, Aspinall stopped Alexander Volkov with a straight armbar in the main event at UFC Fight Night 204. Things may have turned out much different in the fight against Blaydes if not for the injury.
This is a good test for Aspinall, who still has a legitimate shot at the title. Facing a quality opponent, but one he should beat, will be a nice tuneup for a contender battle down the road. And since he hasn’t fought in a while I don’t think Aspinall is going to take Tybura lightly. With a couple of wins over top 10 contenders already, adding another would beef up the resume of No. 5 Aspinall.
You have to commend the resiliency of Tybura ( 24-7, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs ). The veteran has been fighting professionally since 2011 and has an 11-6 record inside the Octagon. That’s a lot of fights for a guy still looking to take the leap to serious contender status. On the plus side he’s fighting the best he’s ever fought with wins in two straight fights and seven of the last eight. His lone setback in that span was by unanimous decision to Alexander Volkov at UFC 267, the same fighter Aspinall subbed in the first round last year.
You can’t read too much into results against like opponents, but it is a starting point. And another reason why Aspinall is a considerable UFC betting favorite is that he’s always in peak physical condition and he can win whatever direction the fight goes. A brief stint as a pro boxer gives him an edge when the fighters are upright and his quick, powerful hands have hurt opponents.
Tybura has been good enough to loiter in the top 10 of the heavyweight rankings but not good enough to go much further. Facing a dangerous fighter with a more skilled repertoire doesn’t bode well for his upset chances. And with seven of his last nine wins by decision, Tybura lacks the power punch that could deliver the upset.
I can’t see Aspinall losing this fight and there’s little value at his price. It would pay to look elsewhere for better value and a UFC bet on an early finish is the way to go since Aspinall ended each of his last eight wins by stoppage before the end of the second round.
UFC Prediction: Tom Aspinall -485 / (T)KO -150
Check out the latest UFC betting odds at BetRivers.
