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There are a lot of heavy favorites on the UFC card this week. Grant Dawson, Joe Pyfer, and Drew Dober are all -400 or more to win their fights per the MMA betting odds, so there is a potential for a significant payday for underdog bettors. A winning parlay with all three underdogs on the ticket would pay at least 30-1, and that’s enough to bat an eyelash at in terms of potential payment.
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green will be held on Saturday, October 7, 2023, from UFC Apex in Enterprise, Nevada. Since its football season, the entirety of the promotion will be shown on ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 4 p.m. ET and the main event getting underway at 7 p.m. ET.
UFC Betting Odds at BetRivers Sportsbook
Grant Dawson -400
Bobby Green +300
This is a big fight for Grant Dawson. He has not lost a bout since joining the UFC in 2019, posting a record of 8-0-1 in the promotion. Dawson has had problems with his weight, coming in over the limit for lightweights twice in the last few years, but he has been dominant with his wrestling skills. In his professional career, Dawson is 20-1-1 with 13 of those victories coming by submission. It hasn’t always been pretty as he’s only earned two bonuses so far, but his style has been awfully effective at lightweight.
Bobby Green knocked off Tony Ferguson at UFC 291 a few months ago, earning a Performance of the Night bonus with a submission of Ferguson. It was his first victory in a year and a half, and he is looking to score another win over an up-and-comer in Dawson. Green is an extremely seasoned fighter with a record of 30-14-1-1. He is at the tail end of his career though, losing four of his eight last matches, so there’s a good reason that he is an underdog by the UFC betting odds on Saturday night.
Green is just 11-8 in fights that have gone the distance during his career, and his age puts him at a disadvantage for a five-round bout against Dawson. Don’t expect a barnburner, but a methodical performance from the younger Dawson in a comfortable victory.
Pick: Grant Dawson
Joaquin Buckley -167
Alex Morono +135
After a long stretch as a middleweight, Joaquin Buckley returned to welterweight earlier this year. He celebrated the division change with a second-round TKO of Andre Fialho back in May, and he is now 9-2 as a welterweight compared to 7-4 as a middleweight. Buckley has knocked out his opponent in 12 of his 16 victories, and he will look to finish Alex Morono inside the distance this weekend.
Morono is 23-8-1 as a professional MMA fighter. He earned a submission victory over Tim Means back in May, but he was knocked out in his previous bout back in December. His three victories before that loss were all by unanimous decision, and he is a more measured fighter than Buckley. Morono also has something of a ground game too, so we are willing to back him as a slight underdog by the MMA betting line.
Pick: Alex Morono
Drew Dober -480
Ricky Glenn +350
Although Drew Dober is coming off a loss to Matt Frevola in his last bout, he is a huge favorite per the UFC gambling odds against Ricky Glenn this week. Dober is extremely experienced in the promotion, and while he has never been an elite fighter, he has always been very good.
This fight was supposed to happen a year ago at UFC Fight Night 203, but Glenn had to withdraw a week before the event after tearing his groin. He was knocked out in the first round by Christos Giagos in his first fight since suffering the injury, and there are real questions about his explosiveness now.
A line like this makes me think that someone knows something that the general public might not fully grasp just yet. Glenn was a solid fighter once upon a time, but it seems like he might be too slow given the injury he recently sustained.
Play: Drew Dober
