UFC Fight Night 204 Prop Picks

Tom Aspinall takes on Alexander Volkov at UFC Fight Night 204 on Saturday in London, England. Aspinall has been very impressive in his UFC career, winning all four of his fights and finishing all four opponents with three TKO’s and one submission. Volkov is a very experienced fighter who is 34-9 in his career including 8-3 in the UFC. He also has big-time power, as he has 22 wins by KO or TKO. There are 13 fights scheduled for UFC Fight Night 204 and all of the fights can be seen on ESPN+. Let’s take a look at some of the UFC Fight Night 204 props with a focus on Aspinall vs. Volkov, Arnold Allen vs. Dan Hooker and Mike Grundy vs. Makwan Amirkhani.

Aspinall vs. Volkov Prop Picks

The main event has Aspinall listed as a -124 favorite at SugarHouse sportsbook. Aspinall has been very impressive in his four UFC fights and you can make a case that he should be listed as a bigger favorite. If you respect Aspinall, and I do think he is a very good fighter, you could just take him to win the fight and leave it at that. There are, however, some excellent UFC Fight Night 204 Prop bets available at FOX Bet. The two I really like involve how the fight will end. You can get +320 on Volkov winning by KO, TKO or disqualification and you can get +200 on Aspinall winning by KO, TKO or disqualification. I think you could bet both of those props and if the fight ends in a KO or TKO you are going to make money. You may also just want to take Aspinall at the +200 to win this fight by knockout.

If you want to take a flyer on the fight ending quickly in a KO or TKO then taking these fighters to win in Round 1 has some value. Volkov is listed at +750 to win in Round 1, while Aspinall is listed at +550 to win in Round 1.

Allen vs. Hooker Prop Picks

Another fight that should be competitive is the one between Arnold Allen and Dan Hooker. Allen is listed as a -125 favorite in UFC betting odds. Allen is 17-1 in his career and 8-0 in the UFC. He has five wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. Hooker is 21-11 in his career, including 11-7 in the UFC. He has 11 wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission.

Oddsmakers think this fight is likely to be one that goes to a decision. The rounds are listed at 2.5 and the over is -210. If you don’t want to lay that type of price you could choose to lay the -149 on one of the two fighters winning by decision. The only advantage you get by going over 2.5 rounds versus playing the fight ending by decision is the last half of round three. It seems like a better choice to simply take the -149 price on a fighter winning by decision.

Grundy vs. Amirkhani Prop Picks

We’ll look at one more fight for UFC Fight Night 204 prop picks and that is the one between Mike Grundy and Makwan Amirkhani. Grundy is listed as almost a 2-1 favorite in UFC odds. Grundy is 12-3 in his career but just 1-2 in the UFC, while Amirkhani is 16-7 in his career, including 6-5 in the UFC.

It is hard to see this fight going the distance so betting the props on the rounds looks to be the best choice. Grundy has 12 wins in his career and nine of those wins were finishes. Amirkhani has 16 wins in his career and 12 of those wins were finishes. There is little doubt that this fight will be fought on the mat and it is very likely one of the two get a submission. I am shocked at the prop on either fighter winning by submission, as you can get +225 on this prop at FOX Bet. Grundy has eight submission wins in his career, while Amirkhani has 11 submission wins. I think the +225 is a solid prop wager on this fight.

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night 204 odds at SugarHouse Sportsbook.