Tuesday, April 18 MLB Best Bets

My MLB Best Bets ended up 12-12-1 at BetRivers Sportsbook for a net loss of $55 throughout all of last week. It was a bothersome grind and it kicked off last Tuesday with Christian Javier getting outdueled by Mitch Keller in the lone game the Astros lost to the Pirates throughout the series. Then we watched as Alek Manoah wet himself against Detroit by issuing more walks (5) than accrued punch-outs (3). Don’t worry, we recouped the loss there be fading him on Sunday against Tampa Bay – BIG! The lone winner proved to be the first five innings under in the pitching duel between Jesus Luzardo and Aaron Nola. Thankfully we only went F5 with the game getting away from both hurlers in the sixth! Let’s see if we can get back to adding to the bottom line with Tuesday’s installment of MLB Best Bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 24-23-2 ($217)

LW: 12-12-2 (-$55)

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals

Josiah Gray was an early-season heartthrob of mine last year. After a decent start to his 2022 campaign, it ultimately snowballed into an unmitigated disaster with the right-hander failing to live up to his highly touted prospect status by going 7-10 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The results haven’t been great to kick-off 2023 either with him 0-3 through three starts. However, that’s been more a product of a Nats offense that’s given him a grand total of one run to work paired with one of the worst defenses in the game (No. 28).

While hits paired with serving up long balls are still a concern evidenced by 10.3 and 2.2 allowed per nine innings, his BB/9 is down to a career-low 2.7 and he’s bound to experience some positive regression in the allowed hits department with his career mark clocking in at 8.3. This might be the spot where he shines! Baltimore enters this series having just taken two of three at Chicago in a series marred by weather. Washington gets the benefit of running up against the backend of the O’s rotation. Dean Kremer’s a stiff! The Orioles own a 23.2 percent K rate away from Camden Yards, and they’ve never seen Gray’s stuff before. With Josiah only exceeding his K prop once to date, we could see a reduced offering. Slam the over once this puppy surfaces 4.5!

BET JOSIAH GRAY OVER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies

I can’t comprehend how it happened exactly, but Jose Urena nearly tossed a quality start last time out at home against the St. Louis Cardinals. Many an MLB bettor was loaded up on the over of that matchup with him squaring off against a wild Jack Flaherty – both for the first five innings and full game! That includes this guy who sat in disgust as both teams combined for 17 hits but only managed to push 11 runs across the plate in a game the total closed 13.

Well, I’m going right back to the Urena well here knowing there likely won’t be too many more chances to fade this dude over the course of the baseball betting season. The righty currently has more walks (9) than strikeouts (8), owns a bloated 9.90 ERA, is serving up 4.5 home runs per nine innings, and has allowed 17 hits through his 10 IP. On top of that, he’ll be matched up with Vince Velasquez who is without a doubt in line for a stat line massacre after shockingly tossing six innings of shutout ball against St. Louis last time out – welcome to Coors you gas can! Look for both offenses to thrive in what should be a slug fest right from the first pitch!

BET THE F5 & FG OVER 12.5 -105

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners

It’s been a rough start to the season for the M’s who’ve only managed to split their first 16 games. Even so, the 8-8 record only finds them a single game in back of AL West front running Texas. I think it’s only a matter of time until Seattle rattles off a huge winning streak to take hold of the division and let it be known they’re one of the teams to beat in the American League. Having just tallied four straight wins by sweeping the Rockies in T-Mobile Park over the weekend, that time might be now.

After staring back at Corbin Burnes in Monday night’s series opener, the Mariners get Colin Rea who kicked off his campaign with a brilliant showing against the Padres by tossing 5.2 innings of 1 ER ball with a 6:1 K/BB ratio. I think he caught Manny Machado and Co. sleeping. That won’t be the case with Julio Rodriguez and his mates tonight! On top of that, Logan Gilbert will take to the bump for his fourth start off logging win No. 1 at Wrigley by hurling 6.2 dominant innings against the Cubbies. Though I never like backing home teams on the run-line due to having one less at-bat, we’ll take a shot here and back Seattle on both the moneyline and 1.5 run-line to set up a 1-run wager on the alternative lines at BetRivers. It only pays .68 cents on the dollar but pays better than hitting the M’s at the -195 opener (.51 cents).

BET THE MARINERS

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