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Though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were expected to run up against one of the easier schedule strengths heading into the 2022-23 NFL betting season, it ultimately turned out that a bulk of their opponents ended up being much better than expected. That paired with the injury bug decimating the roster on both sides of the ball, the offense ranking out amongst the worst in the league, and Tom Brady putting forth a forgetful campaign in his swan song season saw the Bucs struggle to live up to expectations. They won the NFC South with a losing record! I thought the team’s 11.5-game win total was laughable last season and rushed to the betting window at PointsBet Sportsbook to slam the under. That ticket was cashed midway through the year! With “The GOAT” no longer under center, Tampa Bay has seen its win total odds get nearly cut in half with either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask set to lead the offense into battle. While the Bucs will once again possess a stingy defense with a recovered Shaq Barrett back in the middle, Todd Bowles is still roaming the sideline calling the shots and that’s more than enough for me to fade this team for the second straight season. Let’s take a closer look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ win total odds, schedule strength, and betting analysis.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jason Licht Should’ve Killed it with Fire!
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had an eventful 2022-23 season, starting with the retirement saga of QB Tom Brady. After retiring then coming out of retirement weeks later, Brady led the team to the playoffs, but their performance was disappointing evidenced by the 31-14 beat down at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round. With multiple last-minute drives, they narrowly avoided finishing with a record as low as 5-6. Their -45 point differential was the worst among playoff teams and the worst in the division, which they somehow figured out how to win. That doesn’t speak highly of the NFC South as a whole! The team struggled offensively, ranking last in explosive play rate while failing to produce a single elite offensive performance. Coaching also came under scrutiny, with poor play calling and negative EV decisions affecting the team’s overall performance in the W/L department. Provided Mayfield is unable to time travel back to 2020 and rediscover what he did to log the league’s No. 11 QB rating, not much is likely to change from an offensive perspective in 2023-24. With Brady out of the mix, most of the success this team experiences in 2023-24 will fall on the shoulders of a defense that’s now much longer in the tooth.
Bet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Wins Total at PointsBet Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Wins Total: 6.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ schedule for the 2023-24 season is considered manageable, as they face opponents from the NFC South, NFC North, and AFC South. Based on ratings, their schedule is ranked as the 17th easiest per the stat heads over at Sharp Football Analysis. However, they will also face tougher opponents like the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers due to their first-place finish in the previous season. The win total odds for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently set at 6.5 games over at PointsBet with heavier -145 juice attached to the low side of the impost. After going off the board the running favorite to win the division each of the last three seasons, Tampa Bay is an 8-1 dog to pull off the feat which clocks in as the longest odds of all four teams.
Case for the Over
Despite low expectations, there are reasons to believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can exceed their projected win total and win seven games. One advantage they have is playing in the NFC South, which was ranked as the worst division in the NFL. There isn’t a standout team within this division with all four teams expected to take on an easier cast of opponents. With their talented offensive playmakers, including All-Pro wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers have the potential to drop big numbers on any opponent that gets in their way. Don’t forget about second-year RB Rachaad White either with the former Arizona State Sun Devil proving he can shoulder the load when Leonard Fournette was unable to do so a season ago. Additionally, they have favorable matchups against teams like the Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, and Indianapolis Colts. If their quarterback play improves and the coaching staff makes better decisions, the Buccaneers could surpass their win total.
Case for the Under
On the other hand, there are factors that could contribute to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers falling short of their projected win total. The uncertainty at the quarterback position is a major concern, as the team will be transitioning from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. Mayfield has struggled in recent seasons, ranking near the bottom in success rate among quarterbacks. Trask is a complete unknown to this point with the second-year quarterback having thrown a grand total of nine passes in his professional career. While it would be a shame for Tampa to struggle mightily under center, it’s a reality that I believe has at least a 50/50 shot of occurring. The departure of offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich could also impact the team’s performance with this being the first time Dave Canales calls the shots as an OC after spending the last 13 years on the Seattle Seahawks’ coaching staff. Additionally, the Buccaneers have the toughest schedule among their division rivals, facing teams with winning records from the previous season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Schedule
Week 1: at Vikings
Week 2: vs. Bears
Week 3: vs. Eagles (MNF)
Week 4: at Saints
Week 5: Bye Week
Week 6: vs. Lions
Week 7: vs. Falcons
Week 8: at Bills (TNF)
Week 9: at Texans
Week 10: vs. Titans
Week 11: at 49ers
Week 12: at Colts
Week 13: vs. Panthers
Week 14: at Falcons
Week 15: at Packers
Week 16: vs. Jaguars
Week 17: vs. Saints
Week 18: at Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Win Total Analysis
As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter the 2023-24 football betting season, they face low expectations despite being the reigning NFC South champions. The team’s win total odds of 6.5 games indicate a challenging season ahead. However, there are factors that could work in their favor, such as the weak division they play in and the talent on the roster. On the other hand, uncertainties at the quarterback position and a middle of the road schedule could hinder their performance. As tough it might be to stomach after enduring three seasons of Brady calling the shots for this team, the low win total paired with the excessive vig still riding the under makes me feel better about my “Fade Bowles at all Costs” theory knowing how terrible he’s been as the HC as opposed to the DC throughout his NFL coaching career. I get that there are some really nice and experienced pieces to this puzzle, but it’s one I want no business trying to put together knowing full well of the incompetence leading the charge.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Win Total Prediction: Under 6.5 -145
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