Week 5 NFL Parlay Best Bets
October 6, 2023
Week 5 NFL Totals Best Bets
October 6, 2023
We came oh so close to cashing our Sunday Night Football same-game parlay at BetRivers Sportsbook in Week 4 after the Jets put up a much bigger fight with the Chiefs than many an NFL bettor expected. Though New York ultimately covered the closing 7.5-point NFL odds in the 23-20 defeat thanks to Patrick Mahomes taking a dive and Zach Wilson toppled his rushing yards prop, the Jets scored too many points themselves costing us a shot at cashing in on the +1050 SGP. We’ll now turn our attention to the Week 5 Game of the Week that finds the Dallas Cowboys squaring off against the San Francisco 49ers under the Sunday night lights. Let’s see if we can see the SGP all the way through this time around – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
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Unless you live under a rock, you’ll know that Dallas invades Silicon Valley with an enormous chip on its shoulder after the Niners ended their respective campaigns in the playoffs each of the last two seasons. Back in 2022, Kyle Shanahan’s troops went into “JerryWorld” and handed the Cowboys a 23-17 defeat in a game they went off the board 3.5-point road dogs. They held serve the following season – this time in the Division Round – by logging the hard-fought 19-12 win and cover as 3.5-point home favorites. Each game combined for easy low scorers with an average of 35.5 points scored and the total going off the board at 49 on average.
The NFL betting market looks to be all-in on Brock Purdy and co. ripping off a third straight win in the recent rivalry evidenced by upwards of 75 percent of the bets and 80+ percent of the money aligned with the home team. Because of it, the betting line has swelled to -4 at BetRivers. Though total bettors expect points to be scored with the over garnering 90+ percent of the money, the O/U has fallen a half-point from the 45.5 opener. Interesting. Very interesting!
I’ll go on record and let it be known that I think the Cowboys win this game outright. It’s had it circled for months and I don’t believe its shown NFL bettors its true hand just yet after taking on the likes of the Giants, Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots and logged a +20.8 average scoring margin (No. 2). As rock solid the 49ers defense has been with Nick Bosa and co. only allowing 284.3 yards (No. 5) and 14.5 points (No. 3) per game, the unit still only ranks No. 7 in DVOA. That largely has to do with the fact that it’s been gotten through the air to the tune of 218.3 yards per game (No. 17) largely due to accruing a 34.9 percent pressure rate (No. 16).
Dallas sports a 4.14 sack percentage (No. 5) which has equated to just 1.5 sacks allowed per game against opposing defenses that currently rank No. 31, 29, 11, and 18 in defensive sack percentage – San Fran clocks in at No. 28! Though the injury bug continues to wreak havoc along the offensive line, Dallas accrued these rankings with a skeleton crew. Should both Tryon Smith and Zach Martin or at least one of those hogs return to the huddle, it would do Dak Prescott a major solid. The Cowboys QB1 has many of the belief that his days of being an effective downfield passer have come and gone. I beg to differ! If ever there was a spot No. 4 would show up, this would be it after his pair of interceptions proved extremely costly in last year’s postseason loss.
Prescott has exceeded his yardage target each of the last three weeks. I think he has an excellent opportunity to make it four straight against the weak link of what I think is an overrated 49ers defense. CeeDee Lamb has only gone for 53 and 36 receiving yards each of the last two weeks. Because of it, his prop is the lowest it’s been since erupting for 143 yards against the similarly ranked pass D of the Jets. He’ll be matched up against San Fran CB Isaiah Oliver who’s proved to be the most beatable cover man in the Niners’ secondary. Should Dak and CeeDee be able to make sweet music with one another as I expect, each will destroy their respective player props and likely connect in the end zone at least once if not twice.
Forget the points – you can have ‘em; Gimme that moneyline! I also have no reservations going for the gusto by hitting the Cowboys winning this game by 7-12 points at a +650 return. I don’t foresee this being the defensive slog many a talking head envisions and fully expect there to be some offensive fireworks. With that, we’ll hit the over of the 48.5 alt total instead and look for both defenses to set up some cheap scores early and often. In the end, I still foresee the Cowboys coming up with the huge road win to let it be known it is the best team in the NFC.
Dallas Cowboys +155
Over 48.5 +135
Dak Prescott Over 242.5 Passing Yards -113
Dak Prescott Over 1.5 TD Passes +115
CeeDee Lamb Over 64.5 Receiving Yards -115
Bet $100 to Win $1300 On This SNF Same Game Parlay at BetRivers Sportsbook
