Suns at Bucks – ABC
March 3, 2022
Weekend College Basketball Picks
March 3, 2022
By Phil Simon
The Duke Blue Devils are on a roll, which is bad news for the visiting North Carolina Tar Heels.
Winners of seven straight, the Dookies close out Coach K’s final regular season against their longtime rival looking for the season sweep. Duke’s four losses this season have been by a combined nine points and the Devils are positioned among the favorites in the recent college basketball national championship odds. The teams met in early February with Duke ending a two-game slide in the series with a convincing 87-67 win in the Dean Dome.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
Date and Time: Saturday, March 5, 2022, 6 p.m. ET
Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Opening CBB Odds: (Check Back Later)
Tar Heels at Blue Devils TV Coverage: ESPN
Odds Analysis
The Tar Heels are on a nice run since their loss to Duke in early February winning six of seven, including four in row, to solidify their spot as a NCAA Tournament team and secure a top-4 and double bye for the ACC championship. There were some concerns about their standing in January with back-to-back losses to Miami and Wake Forest. They have had problems with tougher competition with their only win in five games against ranked teams coming against Michigan, which has slipped since their meeting in early December. Still, UNC has done enough in a tough conference to validate its spot in March Madness. The Heels will be getting points when the NCAA college basketball odds surface and they are just 2-5 SU and ATS when playing as an underdog.
Duke certainly is worthy of its No. 4 national ranking. The Blue Devils beat No. 1 Gonzaga earlier in the season and their four losses are by a combined nine points. Five of their wins during their current 7-game winning streak were by double figures with the last two by a combined 55 points. They covered the spread in those games and are 3-1 ATS over their last four. They are playing their best basketball of the season with one of the best offenses. Duke averages nearly 81 points while shooting 48.9 percent from the field. They’ve played above the total in their past two games and the OVER is 7-2 in their last nine.
North Carolina Tar Heels
It wasn’t meant to be when the Tar Heels hosted Duke last month. Leading scorer Armando Bacot was limited by early foul trouble and Caleb Love struggled from the floor hitting just 4 of 10 shots. They had 20 points between them in the game, 12 points below their combined season average. With their top two players having difficulties, the Heels didn’t have the depth and the 20-point loss was the result. It was UNC’s worst setback in the series since 2010 ending a two-game winning streak. The Heels were 7-1 against the college basketball odds in the previous eight games against Duke.
With Bacot (16.4), Love (15.5), Brady Manek (14.2) and R.J. Davis (13.3) all averaging more than 13 points, the Tar Heels have been solid offensively. As a team they score 78.1 points per game while hitting nearly 38 percent of their three-pointers. The problems have been on the other end of the floor. UNC allows 72.4 points per game with opponents making 43.4 percent from the field. It’s led to some high scoring games with the OVER 10-3 in the past 13 contests.
Duke Blue Devils
They’ve enjoyed a strong season but the Blue Devils have improved their college basketball futures odds over the last few weeks. Since a one-point loss to Virginia last month, they’ve won seven straight with five of those victories by double figures. The last three wins all came on the road avenging their last loss with a 65-61 win in Charlottesville followed by beatdowns of Syracuse and Pitt by a combined 55 points. The offense was particularly effective in the past two games with Mark Williams, Paolo Banchero and A.J. Griffin all scoring at least 20 points against the Orange.
The Dookies could’ve let up against Pitt on Tuesday. It was their third straight road game with the rivalry tilt ahead. And Pitt is well down the conference standings. Instead the Blue Devils played one of their best games of the season in the 30-point thrashing earning an easy cover on the college basketball betting odds. Four players reached double figures in that game led by 27 points from Trevor Keels. Duke averages 80.3 points and is 17-11-2 ATS.
Bet North Carolina at Duke
You can throw out the records and stats when these rivals meet. However, if we did that we’d have nothing to talk about. Based on the numbers Duke is the better team and they have added incentive with this being the final regular season game of Coach K’s career. That alone would be enough to have me backing the Dookies, but toss in the recent play of Griffin and lottery pick Banchero and Duke is my college basketball odds pick at SugarHouse sportsbook.
College Basketball Prediction: Duke Blue Devils / OVER
