SEC CBB Futures Odds Betting – One to Buy, One to Sell

The Kentucky Wildcats opened the 2022-23 college basketball season +180 favorites to win the SEC. Fast forward three and a half months and John Calipari’s kids are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives! As it stands right now, Oscar Tshiebwe and his mates are currently on the “First Four Out” line of Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology piece updated the beginning of every week. While that’s newsworthy, the big story out of the SEC this season is that of the Alabama Crimson Tide who only just recently dropped their first game in SEC play after falling 68-59 in Knoxville as 3-point underdogs on Wednesday night. Even so, BetRivers Sportsbook still has Nate Oats’ kids installed heavy favorites to capture the regular season title for the second time in the last three seasons.

It’s tough envisioning anyone catching up to them in the standings, but alas there is still work to be done with four other teams still having odds to win the conference on the board. One of those teams just so happen to be the Texas A&M Aggies who clock in as the Crimson Tide’s biggest threat with only five games remaining on each team’s respective docket. Let’s dig into each and see which one we’re buying and which one we’re selling.

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BUY: Alabama Crimson Tide -1667

If you’ve been following my college basketball betting coverage this season, you’ll know I recommended purchasing shares of Bama to win the National Championship in the middle of January when Brandon Miller and his mates were offering up a 10-1 return on investment. In terms of winning the SEC, you missed the boat if you didn’t get in early with the team stockpiling wins right from the outset. Their +775 rate of return didn’t last long after opening SEC play with wins against both Mississippi schools and following those wins up with curb stomps of both Kentucky and Arkansas. The window of opportunity to back the Crimson Tide at a decent return on investment slammed shut immediately! It won’t be reopening anytime soon with three of the team’s final five games to be played within Coleman Coliseum where it’s won all 12 games and covered the closing CBB odds eight times.

A quick peek at the Pomeroy Ratings paints a picture of a team that runs a highly efficient offense (No. 14) that’s backed up by one of the stingiest defenses in the country (No. 2). Most impressive is the unit ranking No. 1 in 2-point percentage defense and No. 2 at defending the perimeter. That paired with an offense that races up and down the court has seen Alabama scorch the nets for nearly 83.0 points per game! Save for the headscratcher of a loss in Norman during the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, this team has done everything needed to earn the No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament in my book. It’s got Georgia, @South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn, and @Texas A&M remaining on the ledger and holds a single game lead over the Aggies whose only two SEC losses have occurred away from College Station.

Even so, the Tide plays against a much easier end of season schedule than that of A&M. That could find them having a little breathing room entering the season finale which would afford them the luxury of possibly winning the regular season title regardless of how that game plays out. I’m not one to lay heavy chalk in the futures market, but go ahead and fire away if that’s something you have no issue doing. This is the Tide’s title to lose!

SELL: Texas A&M Aggies +900

Hats off to Buzz Williams and the Aggies for building off last year’s NIT title game appearance and carrying that success over into 2022-23. Texas A&M is a solid team but doesn’t even rank out amongst the best teams in the SEC when going by the most up to date Pomeroy Ratings. Though each possess longer odds to win the conference than A&M, the Vols (No. 4), Auburn (No. 18), and Arkansas (No. 23) all rate out higher than 34^th ranked Texas A&M. It’s also played to the easiest schedule rating of the five teams. While efficient (No. 22), the offense simply has to work too hard to put points on the board with it ranked No. 118 overall. The defense is stingy in allowing just over 66 points per game, but it’s beatable along the perimeter (No. 148) and has to make up for an offense that turns the ball over (No. 115) more than you’d like of a potential title contender.

I respect the heck out of what Wade Taylor IV and his mates have done to this point, but I still don’t think it will be enough to prevent Alabama from seeing its title run all the way through. That doesn’t mean I won’t look to back them should they find themselves in the finals of the SEC tourney a second straight year.

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