Saturday, May 6 MLB Best Bets

Last Saturday’s MLB Best Bets ended up 1-1 over at BetRivers Sportsbook with the Braves and Mets getting washed out at Citi Field. Zach Wheeler and Christian Javier showed up as expected allowing us to cash a ticket on the F5 under with only a pair of runs put on the board. That profit was however wiped out later in the night when Reid Detmers failed to show which resulted in a 7-5 loss to the Brew Crew with the Angels late bid to win the game ultimately coming up short; effectively killing our series wager as well. Here’s to kicking off the weekend on the right foot with Saturday’s installment of best bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 46-40-3 ($545)

LW: 12-10 ($213)

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Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

That Tinseltown trip sure took the wind out of the Phillies sails who had been on a mini-run taking four straight series before embarrassingly getting the brooms busted out upon them by the Dodgers. After running up against LA’s No. 6 ranked starting staff, Bryce Harper and co. now get the pleasure of running up against Boston’s maligned starting staff that enters the series ranked No. 25 in the quality start department. Having amassed only one QS through six starts, the prospects don’t look good for Corey Kluber to improve upon his bloated 6.44 ERA with the veteran serving up 8.9 hits and 3.7 walks per nine innings. While the strikeouts have been there (8.3/9), Philly’s pounded RHP for an average of 5.0 runs per game by way of accruing a .778 OPS (No. 6). I firmly expect Philadelphia to hang a crooked number on the board!

That being said, the Red Sox are likely to get theirs as well running up against left-hander Bailey Falter whose best start to date came against a castrated White Sox offense back on April 18. That seven inning outing was just one of two quality starts earned to date. He did however give up the maximum amount of ER in both outings, and has failed to see the sixth in any of his other four starts. Likely due to allowing 10.0 hits per nine with 1.7 of those hits reaching the cheap seats. Boston has raked LHP for a .769 OPS (No. 4) and averaged 5.5 runs per game. The over cashed in seven of those 12 contests, and it’s also come in for total bettors in nine of their 13 played games away from Fenway where they’ve also plated an average of 5.5 runs per game.

We’re attacking this spot from a number of different angles. I don’t foresee either starter being long for this tilt. As such, we’ll pair the over of the first five innings along with the over for the full game. On top of that, we’ll be hitting the over of both team totals and expect a slugfest to play out with the garbage each squad is voluntarily throwing onto the starting bump.

BET THE F5 & FG OVER

BET RED SOX TEAM TOTAL OVER

BET PHILLIES TEAM TOTAL OVER

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels

Though Reid Detmers let us down in a big way last Saturday failing to put his team in a position to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers, we’re going right back to the well with the young right-hander against the division rival Rangers with first place in the AL West on the line. While Detmers struggled mightily with his control against the weak-hitting Brewers, the stuff was still there evidenced by his predominantly used slider garnering a 30 percent whiff rate and 40 percent called strikes + whiff rate. Those are still some elite outputs and I would be buying on this kid now if he’s still sitting out there on your fantasy baseball league’s waiver wire. I believe much better is on the horizon for this cat!

We’ll fade Nathan Eovaldi coming off his best start in years in likely what will go down as his most dominating start of the 2023 MLB betting season after tossing a complete game shutout at the Yankees and striking out a season-high eight on 113 total pitches. The veteran right-hander has been nothing if not sensational for his new team in going 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA helping Texas rank No. 11 in the quality start department. Should the righty enter this start a bit fatigued from just going the distance and his peripheral pitches not be up to snuff, LA will tee off on his 4-seamer with Shohei Ohtani just one of five Halos logging impressive run values against the pitch type per Baseball Savant.

While early, much is riding on the outcome of this series. With the Angels more or less nothing but an afterthought ever since the “Rally Monkey” helped lead them to a World Series title back in 2002, I expect the Big A to be electric through the weekend and help propel the team into first place.

BET THE ANGELS

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