Saturday, April 29 MLB Best Bets

By Mike Rose

Last Saturday’s MLB Best Bets ended up a disappointing 1-2 over at BetRivers Sportsbook. The New York Yankees proved to be the lone ticket cash after walking it off in the bottom of the ninth due to Wandy Peralta failing to close it out in the top half of the inning when pinch hitter Danny Jansen launched a 2-run bomb into the cheap seats. Condolences to all run-line bettors! Shane McClanahan hadn’t allowed a single home run through his first four starts, but decided to give up his first two in the first five innings against the White Sox of all teams ultimately killing our position on the 3.5-run F5 under. I personally stayed away from Shane Bieber’s K prop last Saturday due to all the postponements and his start being the first of the doubleheader with the Marlins, but the L will still be counted for record purposes. Regardless, Bieber no longer has the stuff MLB bettors once knew and loved.


Here’s this Saturday’s installment of best bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!


YTD: 34-30-3 ($332)

LW: 10-7-1 ($115)


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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets


Fully aware Spencer Strider is on a heck of a heater having rattled off quality starts in three of five trips to the bump while conceding just 6 ER and racking up a 49:11 K/BB ratio over 30 total innings. However, he had some issues against Pete Alonso and co. last season serving up 14 hits over 12.1 innings while throwing to a 17:6 K/BB ratio through three starts. His lone Citi Field appearance only saw him last 2.2 innings after getting peppered for six hits and 4 ER which equated to a .429 batting average against. He’ll be an inflated favorite on the road for start No. 6.


New York enters this series 9-5 against starting RHP and averaged 5.6 runs per game in those contests. BetRivers will be ponying up an attractive return on investment in the second game of this series with a struggling Tylor Megill on the bump, and that’s something I won’t be able to pass up. The right-hander has pitched to nearly a run less per start at home than on the road, and he’s shined in a pair of outings to date only allowing six hits and 2 ER through 11 IP against the Marlins and Padres. I get Atlanta possesses a different caliber of offense, but it’s the Mets or nothing for me regardless – let’s gamble!




Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros


I’m banking on a stellar pitching matchup going down in the second game of this interleague set between the Phillies and Astros with Zach Wheeler set to square off against Christian Javier. Philly’s No. 2 has logged wins in back-to-back starts against the White Sox and Rockies even though he was tagged for 11 hits and 7 ER through 11 innings of work. Even so, he racked up an impressive 16 strikeouts while only issuing three free passes. His stat line against Colorado was wonky and I feel he’s on the precipice of really turning it around.


Javier is one of three hurlers in Houston’s rotation with a sub 3.30 ERA and is one of two yet to be defeated this season. He’s conceded two or fewer runs in three of his five made starts, and enters start No. 6 off tossing a gem in Atlanta where he hurled six innings of 1 ER ball at the Braves while racking up 10 K and walking a pair. He gets the added advantage of Philadelphia never seeing his stuff before, and the Phillies are averaging nearly a run less on the road than at home. Look for both of these arms to keep the offenses in check early on.




Los Angeles Angels vs. Milwaukee Brewers


We’ll be fading another staff ace to close Saturday’s MLB picks out by backing the Angels as substantial road dogs against Corbin Burnes and the Brew Crew. I think Milwaukee’s behemoth right-hander is pitching injured right now. He suffered a pec strain two starts ago and hasn’t looked himself since in allowing eight hits (1 HR) and 4 ER while also issuing five walks to go along with only 8 K. He’s logged just one quality start to date and hasn’t pitched through the fifth inning four of five times. I think Mike Trout and co. knock him out early once again!


On the other side of the spectrum we got the up-and-coming Reid Detmers whom I’ve been sitting in the weeds watching patiently waiting for the perfect moment to strike. I think this is it! Though he hasn’t been efficient through four starts failing to reach the sixth in three of four opportunities, he’s flashed with a 10.4 K/9 while bombarding the opposition with an assortment of pitches while getting a number of swinging and called strikes with all of them. The Brewers struggle against the slider and that was his preferred pitch he dominated the Royals with last time out. I’ll be looking to place a series wager on the Halos who are about as rabid as it gets running up against a Milwaukee outfit that just dropped back-to-back home series.




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