Providence vs. Kansas Sweet 16 Betting Odds and Prediction

With Auburn, Wisconsin, and Iowa all falling by the wayside, the path to the Final Four looks tailor-made for the No. 1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks to represent the Midwest Region in New Orleans come April 2. That being said, have we ever come to accept a Bill Self coached team as being one that can live up to expectations in NCAA tournament betting? If you answered yes to that question, you’re watching the Madness through crimson and blue sunglasses. How on god’s green earth are the Jayhawks laying near four possessions at DraftKings Sportsbook against a gritty Providence Friars squad overlooked by none other than Ed Cooley himself? I simply just don’t get it! You could say it has something to do with the Jayhawks breaking my heart seemingly every season, but I’d state it has much more to do with the heart, talent, and athleticism of a Providence squad that’s been ridiculed and laughed at for being the luckiest team in the country all year long. How lucky did they look last week? I’ll tell you right now most diehard Jayhawks fans are very uneasy about this matchup. When it looks too good to be true, more times than not it is!

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds

Providence +7.5

Kansas -7.5

O/U 141.5

Betting Odds Analysis

The Jayhawks initially opened as 8-point favorites with the O/U set at 141. Though 68 percent of the bets and 82 percent of the money has surfaced on the underdog, linemakers only pushed the number to beat down a half-point to -7.5. Kansas saw its five-game cover streak get snapped in the second round versus Creighton; they went off the board favored to win each of those games. In the nine played games the Providence Friars went off the board dogged this season, they went a moneymaking 7-2 SU and 8-2 versus the college basketball odds. The most recent instance saw it comfortably cover a 10-point impost in a 76-74 loss at Villanova. Points look to be on the menu for total bettors with the O/U up a half-point to 141.5 with 69 percent of the bets and a whopping 82 percent of the money expecting points to dent the scoreboard.

Providence Friars

There isn’t a luckier team in the country than that of the 2021-22 Providence Friars, right? Not when going by the Pomeroy Ratings luck factor that has the No. 4 seed atop the list. That being said, were their pair of triumphs accrued last week of the lucky variety? I think not! They handled trendy dog South Dakota State in the opening round winning 66-57 as 3-point chalk, and then massacred Richmond as a follow up 79-51 again a 3-plus point favorites. I just don’t understand why the betting market is so down on this team, and willing to throw money at their assumptions every passing game. I backed Aljami Durham and his mates in both contests, and will gladly grab what I perceive to be an inflated amount of points in the Sweet 16. Let it be known that I moved Kansas on in my bracket, but still believe the Friars go down fighting if they go down at all.

Kansas Jayhawks

Still the weakest and most beatable of the No. 1 seeds, my Jayhawks have a clear path to the Final Four mapped out for them. Get by the Friars, and it’ll either be a gritty Miami Hurricanes outfit or an Iowa State squad it swept in the regular season (1-1 ATS). Bill Self couldn’t have asked for an easier path to the bayou as evidenced by their odds at DK to win the Midwest Region clocking in at -190. Unicorns and rainbows aside, the Jayhawks are going to need all their PTPers to show up for this one against a Providence team that won’t back down for a single second. I’m looking at you Ochai Agbaji! Sorry, but 16.4 points per game isn’t going to cut it! This kid is supposed to be the team standout. While he’s done just that in spots, he’s way too inconsistent for my tastes. If he once again disappears like he’s done with regularity of late, Kansas will get their legs and wings dipped into blue cheese and be eaten by the hungry Friars who’ll have no issues asking for seconds!

The Wager

I’m always tough on my alma mater. It comes from years of stockpiled disappointment. As great it’s been to finally see Remy Martin come into his own as a member of the Jayhawks, there are just way too many question marks littered up and down the roster for me to be confident Kansas covers a lofty point spread let alone manages to find its way into the Elite Eight. When pairing these teams up against one another according to the T-Ratings, it’s green across the board save for the Friars’ defense simply being unable to force turnovers (No. 311). Other than that, these teams match up extremely well against one another. The Friars have the size down low to make life tough for the foul prone David McCormack and Mitch Lightfoot, and they also do a tremendous job defending the perimeter (No. 31). If Providence is allowed to play the game at its preferred snail pace (No. 283), Kansas is going to be hard-pressed to create much of any distance on the scoreboard provided it doesn’t go HAM from the field. When’s the last time the Jayhawks did that in the dance against a credible opponent? I honestly can’t remember the last time – gimme the points!