Preakness Stakes Longshot Odds and Picks

A total of nine horses are entered for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The second race in horse racing’s Triple Crown has Arkansas Derby winner Muth listed as the 8-5 morning line favorite with Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan the 5-2 second choice. Trainer Bob Baffert was unable to run Muth in the Kentucky Derby due to his Churchill Downs suspension, but Muth will get a lot of attention in the Preakness. Baffert also has Imagination who is listed with Preakness odds of 6-1. With a field of just nine horses there are not many longshots to consider, but we’ll see if we can find any value in some of the other horses.

Check out the latest Preakness odds at Caesars.

2024 Preakness Field (Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning-Line Odds)

1. Mugatu, Jeff Engler, Joe Bravo, 20-1

2. Uncle Heavy, Butch Reid Jr., Irad Ortiz Jr., 20-1

3. Catching Freedom, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 6-1

4. Muth, Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 8-5

5. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 5-2

6. Seize the Grey, D. Wayne Lukas, Jaime Torres, 15-1

7. Just Steel, D. Wayne Lukas, Joel Rosario, 15-1

8. Tuscan Gold, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 8-1

9. Imagination, Bob Baffert, Frankie Dettori, 6-1

I don’t know that the longshots have much appeal, but then again, I don’t know that any horse other than Muth has a lot of appeal. Baffert has won this race eight times and Muth has won his last two starts. He already beat Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby and I see no reason he won’t beat him again in the Preakness. I think Mystik Dan was lucky to win the Derby, but I do think this race sets up for him better than the Derby did.  There is no value, however, in taking him at odds of 5-2. When it comes to longshots in the Preakness, I think you have to consider any horse other than the top two as a longshot. 

The two horses from the inside have very little appeal. Mugatu shouldn’t even be in this race, as the horse has raced 12 times and won just once. He has started in stakes races a total of three times and his best finish was fourth. I want no part of this horse at any price. Uncle Heavy is also listed with odds of 20-1 on the morning line. This horse at least has three wins in five starts and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. The problem is that Uncle Heavy doesn’t have much speed and the Preakness is a speed race. In the last 11 years the Preakness winner has been close to the early pace a total of 10 times.

Catching Freedom is listed at odds of 6-1. The problem I have with Catching Freedom is that he is a deep closer and the Preakness simply is not a race for deep closers. Catching Freedom always seems to run a good race, but this is simply not a good spot for him and there is no value in him at Preakness odds of 6-1.

I think both of the Lukas horses are overrated. Seize the Grey has some minor wins on his resume but nothing to suggest he is in the same class as Muth. Just Steel was a bust in the Derby and he is another horse who is only in the race because Lukas is the trainer.

Preakness Stakes Longshot Picks

The two horses I like as longshots in the Preakness are Tuscan Gold and Imagination. Tuscan Gold is trained by Chad Brown who has won the Preakness twice in the last seven years. The horse is overshadowed by his stablemate Sierra Leone but Tuscan Gold is lightly raced and very capable of winning this race.

Imagination is the other Baffert horse in this race. He has two wins and four seconds in his six starts. He is definitely in the shadow of his stablemate Muth, but if Muth somehow falters, Imagination can win this race. He has excellent speed figures and he is always right there.Check out the latest Preakness odds at Caesars.