NFL Week 9 Opening Line Report

By Phil Simon

With more than half the season still to be played things are getting interesting around the NFL. The 1972 Miami Dolphins can pop the cork on the champagne bottles after the Arizona Cardinals became the last team to lose a game in 2021. The Cards are part of a top-heavy NFC that now has the only four 1-loss teams in the league. The best matchup of Week 9 could be on Sunday night when the AFC-leading Tennessee Titans head to SoCal for a matchup with the 7-1 Rams. However that line has gone bonkers since opening at LA -4. With rushing leader Derrick Henry on the shelf and the Rams swinging a deal for Von Miller, the spread has doubled with LA now at -8.

Week 9 Biggest Line Moves

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

For the second straight week the Jets are part of a game that’s seen some significant line movement. Last week the spread moved against New York in their matchup with Cincinnati. A 3.5-point dog on the look-ahead line, the Jets closed catching 11.5-points. The Bengals were coming off an impressive road win over Baltimore that ran their record to 5-2 while the Jets were embarrassed the week before by New England.

So of course New York goes out and pulls off the huge upset behind their backup quarterback. New York’s stunning victory and Indy’s give-away loss in Tennessee forced the line to shift for the Thursday Night Football matchup. The Jets were catching 14-points on the look-ahead line with that number wagered down to New York +10 by Sunday evening.

A 10-point spread is a huge deal in the NFL so oddsmakers aren’t totally convinced Mike White is the savior in New York. Many have tried since Joe Namath was traded away back in the 1970s with few having much success. I don’t think the Jets are ready to give up on Zach Wilson, but White certainly made things interesting by throwing for over 400 yards and leading the Jets back from an 11-point fourth quarter deficit. That storyline also made the game more appealing to the national audience.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams

Nothing causes a shift in the spread more than injuries. And the betting public noticed what happened to the Tennessee Titans in Week 8. With the league’s leading rusher Henry lost for perhaps the remainder of the season, the Titans took a serious blow not only on the field but in the point spread.

Tennessee built its offense around Henry and with him gone they could have difficulty scoring. The Rams were -4 on the early line, but the recent news had the betting public flocking to LA forcing the spread to double. The Rams also made some news by adding Von Miller to a defense that currently ranks 10th in points allowed.

Stats-wise the Rams haven’t been as good defensively as they were last season. And they showed their willingness to go all-in to win now by trading for Miller, who is still a premiere pass rusher. The Titans won’t be as effective running the football without Henry and if Miller gets up to speed and is healthy, he can wreak havoc up front alongside Leonard Floyd and Aaron Donald, who have combined for 11.5 sacks this season.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Urban Meyer might be looking closely at one of the college football coaching jobs that are available since his first dip into the NFL hasn’t gone smoothly. The Jags did get a win a few weeks ago, but their 31-7 loss at Seattle on Sunday set them back. Early lines had Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite and the Bills responded to a heartbreaking loss at Tennessee in Week 6 with a methodical beating of Miami improving to 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS.

Buffalo is beating teams by an average of over 17 points per game, highest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jags are losing games by an average margin of over 11 points. Hence, we saw the public get back to supporting the Bills pushing the spread to Buffalo -14. They’ve been a double digit favorite twice this season going 1-0-1 ATS.

The Jags could still turn things around this season. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been bad, but there’s a reason why he was drafted first overall. Progress is the name of the game in Jacksonville and we’ve seen some with Lawrence. After throwing seven interceptions in his first three games he’s tossed two in the last four contests. I guess that’s a start. Playing at home hasn’t been much help for the Jags who are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.