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AFC Championship Betting
November 6, 2021
By Phil Simon
Injuries are a part of football and for the past year so is COVID. The Green Bay Packers put their seven-game winning streak on the line in this matchup with the two-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs without Aaron Rodgers leading the way. A positive COVID test shelved the MVP for Sunday’s tilt in what would have been an epic battle between QBs. As a result of this development the line shifted dramatically in favor of the Chiefs, who are now a converted touchdown favorite against Jordan Love and the Packers.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, November 7, 2021, 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Opening NFL Odds: Kansas City -2, O/U 53.5
Packers at Chiefs TV Coverage: FOX
Odds Analysis
The loss of any star player will affect the betting line, and when that player is a three-time league MVP you can be sure the public will take notice. The Chiefs hit the board as a slight 2-point favorite when the early lines surfaced. Given KC’s recent struggles the Packers got plenty of action pushing the line to a pick ‘em. But once news of Rodgers’ situation surfaced all hell broke loose. The line was reset with the Chiefs a 7-point favorite and the total dropping a 48 after hitting the board at 53.5. KC escaped with a 20-17 win last week over the Giants, though they failed to cover the 10.5-point spread. The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS overall and 0-4 ATS at home. The Packers won and covered all seven games since dropping their opener while cashing the UNDER in the last five. Those streaks are in jeopardy without Rodgers.
Green Bay Packers
Things were going so smoothly for the Packers. They throttled Arizona last week handing the Cards their first loss of the season to take over as the top team in the NFC after their seventh straight victory. Playing without your starting QB is never a good thing and it’s even worse for the Packers, who have one of the best in the business. Rodgers is having another spectacular season with 1,874 passing yards and 17 touchdowns. He has at least two scoring passes in each of the past seven games with only one pick. He was intercepted twice in the season opener.
The offense will definitely look different with Jordan Love set to make his first career start. Though no fault of his, Love was the center of attention during the offseason when Rodgers said he wouldn’t play for the team. Many believed it was because Love was being groomed as the replacement. He is, but that likely takes place another year down the road. Love saw his first NFL reps in the opener completing 5 of 7 for 68 yards after taking over in the 38-3 loss to New Orleans.
What’s been most impressive about the Packers is their defense. An area that has seemingly held them back in recent years, the group is playing at a high level. They’ve allowed just over 18 points per game during the winning streak and rank among the top-10 overall in total yards, passing yards and points per game.
Kansas City Chiefs
They bounced back from a humbling loss at Tennessee when they scored just a field goal to beat the Giants last week. But the Chiefs don’t look right offensively and the struggles of Patrick Mahomes are a concern. Mahomes threw for 275 yards and touchdown in the 20-17 triumph, but he was intercepted in his seventh straight game and now has a league-leading 10 picks on the year. He tossed just 11 interceptions all of last season. As a result we’ve seen a drop in the team’s production. Finishing among the league leaders the previous three seasons, KC ranks 10th averaging 26 points.
Maybe Mahomes is trying to do too much to cover for a leaky defense. The Chiefs played a strong game last week holding the Giants to 300 total yards while allowing fewer than 27 points for only the second time. They swung a deal last week to get Melvin Ingram to bolster a group that allows 391.5 yards per game and ranks 25th allowing 27.5 points.
Carelessness with the football has been a leading contributor to KC’s 4-4 record. On top of Mahomes’ interceptions the Chiefs have lost nine fumbles to lead the NFL with 19 giveaways while being next to last with a minus-11 turnover margin. Green Bay has forced 14 turnovers and has the third-best margin at plus-8. If they value the football and force Love to beat them, the Chiefs have a good chance of not only winning but covering the line. That’s a big if, though.
Bet Packers at Chiefs at BookMaker.eu
Maybe this is who the Chiefs are. I keep waiting for the offense to bust loose and it hasn’t with Mahomes having a tough go. And KC has been a money pit at home going 0-4 ATS this season and just 1-9 ATS in the last 10 home games.
NFL Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Packers 20
